1. Weekly Market Review
This week, the spot market for pure benzene in East China experienced an extreme rally driven primarily by delivery mechanics, with mainstream trading prices ranging from RMB 10,470 to 11,750 per ton. As the month-end delivery window approached, port inventories remained at historically low levels. The concentrated covering of short positions triggered a sharp surge in spot prices. However, longer-dated futures contracts showed limited follow-through, widening the spread between late-October futures and spot prices to over RMB 1,500 per ton, reflecting significant market skepticism regarding the sustainability of these elevated price levels. While the ongoing stalemate in U.S.-Iran tensions continued to support crude oil prices, geopolitical premiums fluctuated repeatedly. On the downstream side, the profit-squeezing effect of high feedstock costs became pronounced, with losses expanding for key derivatives such as styrene and caprolactam. Downstream buyers demonstrated little willingness to chase higher prices, creating a stark contrast between weak real demand and tight physical supply. Overall, this week’s price movement was fundamentally driven by the delivery mechanism constraining traders’ ability to fulfill obligations within specific time windows, rather than by a substantive tightening of fundamentals. Following the conclusion of the delivery period, the market will likely be dominated again by the contradiction between recovering supply and weak demand.
2. Next Week Forecast for Pure Benzene
Core disagreements in U.S.-Iran negotiations remain difficult to resolve, with neither party willing to make concessions, ensuring continued instability in the geopolitical landscape. Persistent disruptions to navigation through the Strait of Hormuz and the Bab el-Mandeb Strait continue to pose supply risks that support crude oil prices. Consequently, international crude oil prices are expected to have room for further gains next week, with WTI projected in the range of USD 86–93/barrel and Brent in the range of USD 99–106/barrel. Post-holiday, port inventories are expected to remain at historical lows, maintaining a tight circulation environment for spot materials. Additionally, demand for short-covering ahead of the late-October delivery deadline will continue to provide support for spot prices. Therefore, pure benzene prices in the East China market are forecast to open lower next week before trending upward, with a reference trading range of RMB 9,700–10,000 per ton.
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