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The export picture is tightly linked to urea policy. Since melamine exports are unrestricted while urea exports face quotas, melamine has become an indirect urea export channel. If domestic urea prices stay high relative to international levels, melamine producers will face a cost squeeze, potentially forcing operating rate cuts and supporting domestic melamine prices despite weak downstream demand.
Watch the seasonal pattern: urea demand typically weakens after the autumn fertilizer season, which could lower melamine feedstock costs and provide some margin relief. But with construction-related demand still sluggish, any price recovery will likely be modest. Traders should focus on regional supply disruptions and export windows rather than broad demand recovery signals.
The real question is how much of this new capacity can be absorbed by export markets. China already exported 650,000 tonnes in 2025, and with the removal of the 13% export rebate from April 2025, overseas competitiveness may weaken. Domestic producers should watch urea costs closely—each tonne of melamine consumes about 3.2 tonnes of urea, making feedstock the swing factor in profitability.