Introduction: Currently, the domestic acrylic emulsion market is in a stalemate, characterized by strong cost support and weak demand. Prices of key upstream raw materials such as butyl acrylate, MMA, and styrene remain elevated, providing substantial cost support for the emulsion market. However, downstream demand is slow to follow, with high prices curbing procurement activity. Purchases are primarily limited to essential restocking. As of April 3, the reference price for low-solid-content styrene-acrylic emulsion in China is RMB 6,800–7,800 per ton, while pure acrylic emulsion is referenced at RMB 8,300–8,700 per ton.

Cost: High-Level Consolidation, Sustained Pressure on Enterprises

According to data from chempricehub, the market price of raw material butyl acrylate has recently edged up slightly. Taking the East China market as an example, the price range is RMB 12,450–12,550 per ton, an increase of RMB 160 per ton or 1.29% compared to the previous week. The MMA market has fluctuated upward. As of the 2nd, negotiations in the East China market are referenced around RMB 14,800–15,200 per ton; in the Shandong region, negotiations are referenced at RMB 14,800–14,800 per ton; and in the South China region, negotiations are referenced at RMB 15,400–16,000 per ton. Domestic styrene prices have also fluctuated higher. In Jiangsu, spot transactions reached a high of RMB 11,250 per ton and a low of RMB 10,100 per ton, with a price difference of RMB 1,150 per ton. The styrene market itself experienced minor fluctuations in supply and demand. Positive export news, coupled with intense market dynamics such as reluctance to sell at low prices, increased restocking after price dips, pressure on end-users to chase rising prices, and profit-taking, led to significant volatility in futures and spot prices within the cycle. Overall, the market saw more gains than losses during the week, trending upward amid fluctuations.

Market Conditions: Stalemate in Supply and Demand Fuels Wait-and-See Sentiment

Currently, domestic acrylic emulsion prices are consolidating at high levels. On the supply side, some emulsion holders have proactively reduced operating rates due to cost pressures, keeping the industry's overall operating rate at a relatively low level. Enterprises are primarily focused on fulfilling previous orders, with limited new order intake. There is no significant expectation of a boost in terminal downstream demand. Orders in downstream sectors like coatings and waterproofing remain sluggish, with most factories adopting a wait-and-see attitude and procuring mainly based on immediate needs.

Regarding market sentiment, industry participants largely share a consistent view of the near-term outlook, generally expecting the market to maintain narrow-range fluctuations. Optimists believe solid cost support will limit downside price potential, while a minority of users hold a bearish view, suggesting persistently weak demand may force companies to slightly lower their offers. Overall, market participants remain cautiously observant.

Analysis of Production Profit Data Fluctuations

From a profitability perspective, the acrylic emulsion industry as a whole is operating with minimal profits or even experiencing narrow losses. Theoretically, the production gross profit for pure acrylic emulsion is RMB 24.00 per ton, with a gross margin of 0.28%, while for styrene-acrylic emulsion, it is RMB 233.92 per ton, with a gross margin of 3.20%. This week, the production gross profit for pure acrylic emulsion decreased by RMB 43.50 per ton compared to last week, and for styrene-acrylic emulsion, it decreased by RMB 211.20 per ton. The main reason is that prices of raw materials butyl acrylate and MMA remained firm or strengthened during the week, while the styrene market rose before retreating. Overall, raw material costs increased compared to the previous week. However, acrylic emulsion market prices held steady, leading to a decline in production profits this week compared to last week.

Post-Market Outlook: Continued Supply-Demand Tug-of-War, Range-Bound Consolidation Likely to Persist

On the cost front, butyl acrylate is expected to maintain high-level consolidation in the short term, the MMA market is likely to remain firm, and styrene will continue its range-bound fluctuations. Cost-side support for emulsion prices is expected to persist. On the supply side, enterprise operating rates are projected to remain at medium-to-low levels. Regarding demand, terminal downstream users are expected to continue purchasing based on immediate needs, with little willingness for large-scale stockpiling, leading to generally subdued trading activity. It is anticipated that the acrylic emulsion market will likely experience narrow fluctuations next week, with limited room for price movement.