Lead: Entering September 2026, the domestic sulfuric acid market failed to usher in the “Golden September” peak season. Instead, it extended its decline as the supply-demand imbalance continued to intensify. As of the second week of September, the Chempricehub price index for domestic 98% sulfuric acid stood at 1,540 yuan/mt, down 3.75% from the first week. Although the absolute price remains relatively high by historical standards, weakening cost support, lagging demand recovery, and rising supply-side operating rates have clearly turned market expectations pessimistic.
I. Supply: Operating Rates Edge Up, Regional Supply Ample, Maintenance Bullish Factor Fails to Work
The stable release of supply in September remains one of the core factors weighing on sulfuric acid prices. Chempricehub data show that in early to mid-September, China’s sulfuric acid capacity utilization rate was 63.84%, up 0.66 percentage points from the previous period, an increase of 1.04%, and down 3.08 percentage points year on year. The upward regions were mainly Gansu in Northwest China, where major acid producers resumed after earlier maintenance; Jiaodong in Shandong, where ore-based acid units restarted successively; local refineries, where sulfuric acid unit output increased; and Inner Mongolia in North China, where the Phase II project of a major smelting acid producer was commissioned. The downward region was Hebei, where ore-based acid producers entered maintenance.
Looking ahead to next week, a major ore-based acid producer in Luzhong, Shandong, will resume from maintenance, and China’s sulfuric acid capacity utilization rate is expected to edge down slightly. However, major acid plants will mostly maintain current operating loads, with no large-scale maintenance or production-cut plans for now. Most major acid producers are running steadily, regional supply is ample, and some companies are accumulating inventory, increasing pressure to ship goods. At the same time, exports of ordinary industrial sulfuric acid remain suspended. Resources originally destined for overseas markets are stranded domestically, further aggravating domestic trade supply pressure. The bullish maintenance factor has failed to work, and supply-side support for prices has clearly weakened.
China’s sulfuric acid maintenance loss volume in September is expected to be 150,200 mt. Relatively few units are under maintenance, down 82.23% from August. Overall, supply has not contracted on a large scale; instead, it shows a pattern of “maintenance and restarts coexisting, with total volume rising slightly.”
II. Demand: Phosphate Fertilizer Diverges; Chemical Recovery Fails to Provide a Floor
Since September, demand has been the root cause of this round of sulfuric acid price declines. This period, capacity utilization at major downstream sulfuric acid users showed a pattern of “fertilizer divergence and chemical recovery,” but the increment from the chemical sector is hard pressed to offset weak phosphate fertilizer demand.
Specifically, monoammonium phosphate (MAP) capacity utilization this period was 47.91%, down 3.35 percentage points from the previous period. The operating level fell notably, with some units cutting production and a few undergoing maintenance, reducing overall supply. Diammonium phosphate (DAP) capacity utilization this period was 43.95%, up 0.17 percentage points from the previous period. Some units slightly increased output, but the increment was limited. The mainstream ex-works quote for 55% powdered MAP in Hubei was 4,100 yuan/mt, with a weekly average of 4,186 yuan/mt, down 127 yuan/mt, or 2.97%, from last week. The ex-works price of 64% DAP in Hubei remained at 4,800–4,850 yuan/mt; actual orders were negotiable, and market trading was tepid. Downstream compound fertilizer capacity utilization was only 32.99%, down 1.19 percentage points from the previous period. The core task for enterprises remains digesting finished-product inventory; raw material procurement is limited to small, on-demand restocking, and the willingness to press prices lower is strong.
On the chemicals side, titanium dioxide (TiO2) capacity utilization this period was 71.84%, up 0.07 percentage points from the previous period; caprolactam capacity utilization was 68.09%, up 1.15 percentage points, indicating some recovery in localized demand. However, profits in downstream sectors such as TiO2 and caprolactam are generally negative. TiO2 profit was -3,412 yuan/mt, and caprolactam profit was -1,343 yuan/mt, limiting their ability to accept high-priced sulfuric acid. In the new energy sector, operating rates for wet-process phosphoric acid, iron phosphate, and lithium iron phosphate have rebounded; demand is stable, but overall volume is limited. Overall, the “buy on the way up, not on the way down” mentality dominates the market. Downstream players only replenish for immediate needs, and the overall trading atmosphere is quiet.
III. Cost: Sulfur Falls Broadly, Pyrite Weakens in Tandem, Cost Support Collapses at an Accelerating Pace
The core support for sulfuric acid prices running high in 2026 came from the sustained surge in sulfur. However, this support has fundamentally reversed over the past month. According to Chempricehub data, the price of granular sulfur at Yangtze River ports moved down in a volatile manner from 9,152 yuan/mt in early August to 7,640 yuan/mt in the first week of September. Although it rebounded slightly to 7,783 yuan/mt in the second week of September, the overall center is more than 1,300 yuan/mt below the August high. In overseas markets, the UAE September contract price was FOB USD960/mt, down USD40/mt month on month; Kuwait held stable at FOB USD865/mt; a low-priced deal in Indonesia was heard at CFR USD950/mt, further dampening sentiment in the domestic spot market. This week, national port sulfur inventory rose to 966,200 mt, up 1.10% from last Thursday. Pressure to sell held resources increased, and cost support clearly weakened.
Meanwhile, support from other feedstocks is also unraveling in tandem. Chempricehub data show that the imported copper concentrate TC index continued to deteriorate, dropping from -$172.92/mt in early August to -$211.5/mt in the second week of September, with the deeply negative reading continuing to deepen. Theoretically, this should have forced smelters to cut production, but byproduct sulfuric acid had previously remained relatively high, providing an important profit buffer for copper smelting. However, as sulfuric acid prices fell from 1,750 yuan/mt to 1,540 yuan/mt, this offsetting effect is rapidly weakening. For pyrite, prices gradually declined from 1,850 yuan/mt in early August to 1,700 yuan/mt in the second week of September. Mine pricing generally showed downward expectations, and cost support for ore-based acid is also tending to collapse.
On costs and profits, according to Chempricehub calculations, sulfur-based acid cost was about 2,413.35 yuan/mt, while the East China sulfur-based acid reference price was only 2,150 yuan/mt, giving a sulfur-based acid profit of -234.77 yuan/mt; ore-based acid profit was -131 yuan/mt; smelting acid still had about 1,220 yuan/mt profit due to byproduct advantages, but this has narrowed significantly from earlier. This week, losses in the sulfuric acid industry chain widened further. Sulfuric acid gross profit fell to -235 yuan/mt, down 68 yuan/mt from -167 yuan/mt in the previous period, a decline of 40.72%. Downstream product profits were negative across the board: MAP -1,660 yuan/mt, DAP -1,753 yuan/mt, TiO2 -3,412 yuan/mt, and caprolactam -1,343 yuan/mt.
Overall, with sulfur falling broadly, copper concentrate TC deeply negative, and pyrite prices weakening in tandem, the cost side for sulfuric acid has shifted from “multiple supports” to “multiple weakening factors.” The high-level correction in feedstock prices has left sulfuric acid without its last line of defense. The combined effect of cost collapse and supply release has further intensified downward pressure on sulfuric acid prices. In the short term, if sulfur and pyrite prices cannot stabilize, the cost side will continue to drag the market, and the acid price bottoming process is far from over.
IV. Market Sentiment: Pre-Holiday Bottoming Continues; Watch Post-Holiday Restocking and Maintenance
Next week, the domestic sulfuric acid market is expected to remain weak. Sluggish downstream phosphate fertilizer demand is unlikely to change, and the market center will continue to probe lower for a bottom. The cost side lacks strong support: sulfur prices are range-bound, keeping participants cautious; pyrite is trending down along with the weakening sulfuric acid market; prices of metal ores such as copper, lead, and zinc are holding high but stagnant; overall cost support for sulfuric acid is declining. On the supply side, domestic supply next week is expected to be relatively stable with little fluctuation. Major acid plants will mostly maintain current operating loads, with no plans for large-scale maintenance or production cuts. On the demand side, the phosphate fertilizer market is strongly wait-and-see, with poor trading. MAP demand remains sluggish, while DAP purchases are mainly for immediate needs. Downstream chemical industry demand is divergent, with some localized slight increases, but the boost to overall sulfuric acid demand is limited. The continuous decline in the sulfuric acid market has made downstream procurement sentiment pessimistic and willingness to take cargo low. In addition, with the Mid-Autumn Festival and National Day holidays approaching, transport restrictions may further affect resource circulation. Overall, pre-holiday acid prices are expected to continue probing the bottom; a short-term recovery is unlikely, and the atmosphere is cautious and wait-and-see.
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