Why did aniline prices surge over 85% in early 2021, and what drove the supply crunch?

Aniline prices spiked sharply in Q1 2021, jumping from around 7,733 yuan/ton at end-December to 14,333 yuan/ton by March 22, a gain of roughly 85%. The rally was driven by multiple plant turnarounds that tightened supply, while downstream demand stayed robust. Key consumers like polymeric MDI and rubber additives were enjoying healthy margins, allowing them to absorb higher feedstock costs. Cost support from upstream benzene also strengthened. With buyers queuing for cargoes and inventories low, the market turned bullish. However, sustainability of the rally depends on whether downstream sectors continue to accept elevated prices, as prolonged high costs could eventually trigger demand destruction or force production cuts in weaker derivative chains.