What separates natural alkali from ammonia-soda and combined-soda in cost competitiveness?

Soda ash production splits into three routes with vastly different economics. Natural alkali, concentrated in Inner Mongolia and Henan, has full costs of roughly 700-820 yuan/ton, making it behave like a mining business—high upfront capex but very low operating costs. Combined-soda (Hou's process) costs range 1,050-1,350 yuan/ton, heavily influenced by ammonium chloride by-product prices, while ammonia-soda exceeds 1,300 yuan/ton. As of mid-2026, ammonia-soda is losing about 300 yuan/ton, combined-soda is near breakeven, but natural alkali remains profitable. Capacity structure is shifting: natural alkali now accounts for about 21% of national capacity, with combined-soda at 46-50% and ammonia-soda at 32%. Since new combined-soda and ammonia-soda plants are restricted by industrial policy while natural alkali projects are not, the cost curve will keep tilting toward low-cost producers.