Lead-in:

This week, the domestic acrylic emulsion market showed a weak operating trend. Cost-side support has weakened significantly due to the continuous decline in upstream raw material prices. Meanwhile, demand remains sluggish, with procurement limited to essential needs and market transactions subdued. Under the dual pressure from both upstream and downstream, emulsion producers have successively lowered their quotations, steadily pushing down the price center. Given that the current market drivers show no signs of improvement, the short-term market will continue to weaken.

1. Cost: Raw Material Weakens, Cost Support Fully Loosens

According to data from chempricehub, the raw material market has continued its downward trend recently. The domestic butyl acrylate market continued to decline this week. Taking the East China mainstream market as a reference, the market price range for the week was 9,150–9,300 yuan/ton, down 675 yuan/ton from last week, a drop of 6.82%. Looking at a longer time frame, butyl acrylate prices have fallen continuously, with weakening support from upstream n-butanol, high operating rates in the industry supply side, and sluggish downstream demand.

It is worth noting that not all raw materials are falling. Another important monomer, MMA, bucked the trend and rose this week. As of the 8th, the negotiated reference price in the East China market was around 12,750–12,900 yuan/ton; in the Shandong region, the negotiated reference price was around 12,700–12,700 yuan/ton; and in South China, the negotiated reference price was 13,200–13,700 yuan/ton, with week-on-week declines of 0.83%, 1.26%, and 0.78%, respectively. The weekly average price of styrene in the Jiangsu market first strengthened and then weakened, with a slight overall increase. The highest spot transaction in Jiangsu was 10,310 yuan/ton, and the lowest was 10,040 yuan/ton, a spread of 270 yuan/ton. For pure acrylic emulsion, due to the high proportion of MMA, cost pressure remains high. In contrast, for styrene-acrylic emulsion, the theoretical cost has significantly eased due to the substantial drop in butyl acrylate prices.

2. Market Conditions: Price Center Steadily Declines, Market Enters Weak Channel

Under the dual pressure of weakening raw materials and flat demand, acrylic emulsion prices continued to be adjusted downward this week, with the center of gravity steadily shifting lower, officially entering a weak downward channel. Since the May Day holiday, the acrylic emulsion market has been in a state of weak supply and demand. On the supply side, spot goods in the market are abundant. Production enterprises generally operate at low utilization rates, and overall market sentiment is cautious. On the demand side, although end-users have gradually increased operating rates after the holiday, their enthusiasm for market inquiries and large-scale stockpiling is generally low. The market transaction atmosphere remains sluggish. The stable supply and weak demand form a stalemate, and acrylic emulsion prices lack upward momentum. As of May 8, the reference price for domestic low-solid-content styrene-acrylic emulsion was 6,000–6,800 yuan/ton, and for pure acrylic emulsion, it was 7,300–7,700 yuan/ton, down 2.78% and 4.29% week-on-week, respectively.

3. Analysis of Production Profit Data Fluctuations

According to data from chempricehub, the theoretical gross profit for producing pure acrylic emulsion is currently 546.25 yuan/ton, with a gross profit margin of 7.07%. The theoretical gross profit for producing styrene-acrylic emulsion is 587.73 yuan/ton, with a gross profit margin of 8.83%. This week, the gross profit for pure acrylic emulsion decreased by 10.75 yuan/ton compared with last week, while the gross profit for styrene-acrylic emulsion decreased by 24.03 yuan/ton. The main reason is that after the holiday, although the market prices of core raw materials butyl acrylate and styrene continued to decline, emulsion prices also dropped simultaneously, and due to the larger decline in emulsion prices, the production profit for this week decreased compared with the previous week.

4. Market Outlook: Short-Term Weakness Difficult to Change, Long-Term Return to Rationality

Overall, the cost side is unlikely to see deep declines in the short term next week. On the supply side, production enterprises are expected to maintain stable operations, but sales may be sluggish, and inventory pressure could gradually emerge. On the demand side, under the current wait-and-see atmosphere of "buying on rising, not on falling," the release of demand may require a clear signal of a price bottom to be triggered. chempricehub expects that the acrylic emulsion market will remain range-bound and weak in the short term.