Introduction: US-Iran negotiations continue, crude oil prices remain high, and ethylene tar oil costs stay elevated. Meanwhile, shrinking demand has led to a continuous decline in ethylene tar oil prices. As of May 1, 2026, the mainstream price of ethylene tar oil in East China is 3,400 RMB/ton, and in North China it is 3,425 RMB/ton.

I. Crude Oil Market Fluctuations

Reviewing the Brent crude oil price trend from 2020 to 2026, the global crude oil market has gradually shifted from the supply-demand imbalance under the impact of the pandemic to pricing driven by supply risks dominated by geopolitical situations. Each price fluctuation is highly correlated with key events. Since 2026, the geopolitical conflict in the Middle East has escalated again, with the Iran-Israel conflict continuing to ferment. Coupled with obstructed shipping through the Strait of Hormuz, multiple oil-producing countries have been forced to cut production. Supply risks pushed Brent oil prices to a four-year high of $118.35 per barrel on March 31. On May 1, the NYMEX crude oil futures contract for June dropped by $3.13 to $101.94 per barrel, a month-on-month decrease of 2.98%. The ICE Brent futures contract switched to July, falling by $2.23 to $108.17 per barrel, a month-on-month decrease of 2.02%.

Table 1: Crude Oil Price Summary Table (Unit: 10,000 barrels/day)

| Type | Name | Current Period Average | Previous Period Average | Change | Percentage Change | Unit |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| Crude Oil Futures | WTI | 98.69 | 90.65 | 8.04 | 8.87% | USD/barrel |
| Crude Oil Futures | Brent | 109.58 | 97.13 | 12.45 | 12.82% | USD/barrel |
| Crude Oil Futures | Oman | 104.39 | 98.39 | 6.00 | 6.10% | USD/barrel |
| Crude Oil Futures | SC Main Contract | 651.74 | 622.68 | 29.06 | 4.67% | RMB/barrel |
| International Price | Daqing | 105.23 | 95.24 | 9.99 | 10.49% | USD/barrel |
| International Price | Duri | 102.43 | 97.78 | 4.65 | 4.76% | USD/barrel |
| International Price | Minas | 103.38 | 98.51 | 4.87 | 4.94% | USD/barrel |
| International Price | Tapis | 114.19 | 105.93 | 8.26 | 7.80% | USD/barrel |
| International Price | Cinta | 100.03 | 95.85 | 4.18 | 4.36% | USD/barrel |
| International Price | Shengli | 101.29 | 94.79 | 6.50 | 6.86% | USD/barrel |
| International Price | Brent Dtd | 115.37 | 108.53 | 6.84 | 6.30% | USD/barrel |
| International Price | Dubai | 106.25 | 99.85 | 6.40 | 6.41% | USD/barrel |
| International Price | Oman | 106.15 | 99.64 | 6.51 | 6.53% | USD/barrel |

Source: chempricehub Information

From the supply side, although the US and Iran have extended the ceasefire deadline, the outlook for peace talks remains unclear, navigation through the Strait of Hormuz continues to be blocked, and crude oil production from Persian Gulf coastal countries remains at low levels. The overall supply is assessed to be declining. On the demand side, refinery operating rates in major Asian consuming countries have dropped to low levels, actual crude oil demand is weakening, and overall consumption is assessed to be declining. The supply-demand balance shows supply falling short of demand, maintaining a significant supply gap. Looking ahead to the next period, the outlook for US-Iran peace talks remains uncertain, the Strait of Hormuz situation is unlikely to improve, and the tight supply pattern is expected to continue in the short term.

II. Ethylene Tar Oil Market Reaction

Domestic ethylene tar oil prices across various regions are generally declining. The sustained weakening of overall demand is dragging down the market. Market participants hold a bearish sentiment and insist on just-in-time and essential procurement, leading to light trading. Coupled with the simultaneous price decline of the homogeneous substitute – high-temperature coal tar – bearish factors are being concentrated, further pressuring ethylene tar oil prices downward.

III. Homogeneous Product Market Reaction

For the homogeneous product, high-temperature coal tar, the market continued its downtrend before the holiday. Although the decline in auction prices remained relatively small, actual offline transaction prices were not above low levels. Taking the Shandong region as an example, although the auction price was 4,150 RMB/ton, sales at this price were sluggish, and downstream buyers' intended procurement price was executed at 4,050 RMB/ton. Supported by carbon black companies' price-fixing efforts, the decline in high-temperature coal tar prices this month has been relatively slow. However, prices for most deep-processing products are showing a downward trend, especially industrial naphthalene and coal tar pitch, which have experienced significant declines. Furthermore, there is still room for coal tar pitch prices to fall. As downstream product prices continue to drop, the profit margins of deep-processing enterprises are being continuously compressed. Coupled with poor sales earlier, some coking plants face increased inventory pressure, and bearish factors still dominate the market.

Before the May Day holiday, carbon black market prices weakened. Taking the Shandong region as an example, carbon black prices in April fell from 7,600 to 7,300 RMB/ton, a decline of 3.95%, with neighboring areas also showing a downward trend. Due to persistently high prices earlier, downstream resistance was evident. Moreover, some companies continued to hold firm on raw material tender prices, leading to significant pressure in regional negotiations. In the negotiation game between upstream and downstream, the negotiation progress for new downstream procurement orders was slow, with limited transaction volumes. The market awaits new guidance after the holiday.

In April, the wholesale price of domestic 180CST bunker fuel for the domestic trade market first increased and then decreased, with an overall upward trend. In April, international crude oil fluctuated at high levels. The supply-demand relationship for blending raw materials such as domestic low-sulfur residue/asphalt and shale oil weakened. Prices within the month first rose and then fell. Although the average raw material price showed a slight increase month-on-month, the cost support for heavy bunker fuel oil was somewhat insufficient. Overall, the monthly average wholesale price of 180CST rose.

The mainstream variety of anode materials is graphite-based anodes. The prices of petroleum coke, needle coke, and coating pitch used in production remained firm, first rising and then stabilizing in April. The mainstream price of mid-end artificial graphite anodes was 28,500 RMB/ton, remaining stable since 2026, with only a slight increase in a few small individual orders. The anode material market finds it difficult to promptly raise prices in line with raw material increases. Downstream battery factories continue to suppress anode material prices as the main theme.

IV. Summary

Cost Aspect: Currently, navigation through the Strait of Hormuz continues to be blocked, leading to a significant contraction in Middle Eastern crude oil supply. Combined with the uncertain prospects of US-Iran negotiations, supply risks persist. International oil prices are expected to have room for an increase in the near term. Going forward, close attention should be paid to the navigation status at the Strait of Hormuz, the extent of supply contraction in the Middle East, processing operating rates at Asian refineries, and global demand performance. Simultaneously, developments in the US-Iran situation must be continuously monitored. Geopolitical factors will continue to dominate short-term oil price trends.

Related Markets: After the holiday, the coal tar market remains in a downward channel, but the extent of the decline will depend on market sentiment changes. If downstream factories persist in price-fixing sentiments, the decline will be relatively slow; otherwise, the market could enter a rapid and substantial decline. Overall, the average price in the Shandong region is expected to oscillate between 3,800 and 4,100 RMB/ton. New procurement orders for carbon black downstream are mostly accompanied by price-cutting attitudes. The previous high prices have not been accepted by downstream yet, so post-holiday negotiations are expected to intensify. Producers have high inventories and may offer concessions to stimulate sales. Post-holiday new orders are expected to continue their downward adjustment. Crude oil is expected to rise, providing cost support, but downstream demand after the holiday may remain weak. The wholesale price of 180CST is expected to increase, but the upward space is limited, with the weekly average price rising slightly month-on-month. After the holiday, the price of low-sulfur petroleum coke, a key raw material for anode materials, is expected to rise by 30 RMB/ton (0.62% increase), further increasing anode material production costs. Anode material production will use higher-priced raw materials, leading to significantly compressed production profits. Supported by costs, the market price of anode materials is expected to see an upward trend. In May, 70% of market participants believe anode material prices will remain stable, mainly considering the oversupply pattern in the anode material market. Battery factories hold significant bargaining power and still intend to suppress anode market prices. Therefore, pushing up anode material prices remains very difficult.

Recently, the ethylene tar oil market has been continuously weakening. A "buy on rising, not on falling" mentality dominates, leading to strong wait-and-see sentiment downstream and overall poor circulation. According to statistics from chempricehub Information, major units such as Hainan Refining & Chemical, Yangzi Petrochemical, SINOPEC-SK (Wuhan) Petrochemical, and Shenghong Petrochemical are scheduled for maintenance in May. This will lead to a periodic reduction in ethylene tar oil supply volume, manageable inventory pressure in May, providing some price support. International crude oil has risen significantly from $70/barrel to $90-100/barrel. The sharp rise in crude oil has raised the production cost of ethylene tar oil. However, downstream demand from sectors like carbon black and coating pitch is insufficient to absorb this cost pressure. As of early May, the mainstream offer price for East China ethylene tar oil was 3,400 RMB/ton. At the end of February, the price was around 3,300 RMB/ton, an increase of only 100 RMB/ton. Overall, post-holiday ethylene tar oil costs and maintenance support supply, but weak demand and cautious sentiment suggest that ethylene tar oil prices will mainly fluctuate within a narrow range. Attention still needs to be paid to crude oil trends, downstream resumption pace, and the price linkage with coal tar. If crude oil stabilizes at high levels and demand recovers, ethylene tar oil prices may see a slight correction.