Trading activity remains steady; ethylene oxide prices hold firm.

1. Daily Summary

1. Sep 18: International crude oil prices fell as expectations for the repair of Saudi pipelines improved, coupled with signs of easing tensions in the Middle East. NYMEX WTI October contract closed at $100.3/bbl, down $1.61/bbl (-1.58% WoW); ICE Brent November contract closed at $103.87/bbl, down $0.95/bbl (-0.91% WoW). China INE crude oil futures November 2026 contract dropped by CNY 50.6 to CNY 754.4/bbl; night session dropped by CNY 19.6 to CNY 734.8/bbl.

2. Sep 18: Port ethylene CFR Northeast Asia USD price stood at $1,180/ton, up $10/ton from the previous trading day.

2. Spot Market Overview

Table 1 Domestic Ethylene Oxide (EO) Price Summary (Unit: CNY/ton)

The EO market remained stable. On the supply side, ethylene glycol (MEG) supply provided support, keeping prices fluctuating at high levels. There was no significant increase in spot EO supply, providing support to the market. Downstream industries had limited order releases and maintained rigid demand consumption. Regarding costs, geopolitical uncertainties surrounding ethylene persisted, leading to a wait-and-see attitude across the market and weak follow-up on new orders. Some producers actively raised their offer prices today, but acceptance of high-priced goods was limited, putting pressure on transactions. Overall, short-term fundamentals were decent, EO prices remained firm, and continued attention is needed on upstream and downstream dynamics.

3. Production Dynamics

Today, the capacity utilization rate of China's EO industry stood at 49.22%. As of the previous trading day, the theoretical profit for EO produced using imported ethylene was CNY 1,583.47/ton; the theoretical profit for EO produced using domestic ethylene purchased externally was CNY 1,351/ton today, flat WoW.

4. Price Forecast

EO is expected to trade at high levels in the short term. On the supply side, MEG supply within the plant continues to provide support, suggesting potential strength in the short term. Co-production units may maintain MEG production, leaving no obvious loosening in spot EO supply, thus providing a floor for the supply side. On the demand side, downstream industries have seen slowing order intake and are maintaining steady consumption. Regarding costs, recent ethylene trading has been quiet, giving producers insufficient motivation to push prices higher; stability is likely to prevail in the short term, with cost support remaining. Overall, supply and cost factors continue to support the market in the short term, and EO prices are likely to remain firm at high levels. Continued monitoring of upstream and downstream changes is required.

5. Related Products

   ① Ethylene (Raw Material): Currently, domestic producers' willingness to ship ethylene has increased. Derivative prices have mostly declined, resulting in weak market profitability. Trading sentiment in the market was average today, and external procurement demand failed to boost activity. Ethylene prices are expected to remain steady or slightly weaker in the next trading day. Mainstream negotiation prices in East China are around CNY 9,400/ton, while mainstream negotiation prices in Shandong are at CNY 9,250–9,300/ton. In terms of USD pricing, naphtha prices have fallen, but the shipping market remains tight. The USD market is expected to remain resilient, with price ranges likely hovering around $1,150–$1,210/ton.

② Polycarboxylate Superplasticizer Monomer (Key Downstream): Domestic polycarboxylate superplasticizer monomer prices may see slight softening. The main raw material, EO, is likely to remain temporarily stable. Tight spot MEG supply still provides support, with prices fluctuating at high levels. There is no obvious pressure on internal EO supply. Downstream industries are maintaining rigid demand replenishment. Recent buying sentiment in the ethylene market has been poor, so prices are expected to remain mainly stable, though some softening in northern regions cannot be ruled out; cost support remains. High-priced transactions for monomers face resistance, downstream participation is average, and purchases are primarily small-scale spot orders based on rigid demand, with transactions negotiated based on volume. In summary, the main East China EPEG price is expected to range between CNY 11,800–12,000/ton.

③ Ethylene Glycol (Related Product): Geopolitical tensions remain volatile, and crude oil prices are high. Strong support from the MEG supply side continues to bolster the market, suggesting that bullish momentum will persist in the short term. Tomorrow's ex-tank spot prices in East China are estimated to be in the range of CNY 7,300–7,400.

6. Data Calendar

Table 2 Domestic EO Data Overview (Unit: 10,000 tons)