Lead: In August 2026, the domestic sulfuric acid market experienced a dramatic shift from hot to cold. After a cost-driven price surge in the first half of the year, the market turned sharply downward in August as supply–demand contradictions intensified across the board. Entering September, the weakness showed no sign of reversing: trading sentiment remained thin, and the overall price center moved further down.
1. Market diverges; price center moves lower
This week, the domestic 98% sulfuric acid price index stood at 1,600 yuan/ton, down 3.03% week on week. Although absolute prices remained relatively high historically, market expectations have reversed fundamentally. Regional trends diverged clearly. In Hubei, delivered prices of 98% smelting acid were around 1,400–1,600 yuan/ton, down 6.67%/3.03% week on week. Quotes in Anhui, Jiangxi, Hunan, Zhejiang and other regions fell in succession, with reductions mostly around 50 yuan/ton. Yunnan was one of the few regions to move upward against the trend—after local acid prices had earlier fallen to the low end of the domestic range, stronger outside buying interest and reduced producer inventory led major local acid producers to complete catch-up price increases this week.
2. Supply: major acid plants run steadily; supply remains ample
This week, domestic sulfuric acid capacity utilization edged down, with the national rate falling to 63.18%, down 0.03 percentage points week on week and down 4.50 percentage points year on year. No additional units were restarted during the week. The main output reduction came from a major acid plant in Jiyuan, Henan, and the entry of some units at a few acid producers in the Chifeng area into maintenance. Overall, domestic sulfuric acid utilization remained broadly stable, and market supply was relatively ample.
3. Demand: broad downstream weakness; rigid demand cannot support the market
Demand remained persistently weak, becoming the core factor suppressing sulfuric acid prices. Phosphate fertilizer and chemical sectors purchased limited volumes; downstream buyers mostly procured only on a rigid-demand basis, with widespread wait-and-see and price-cutting sentiment. Market trading was generally muted. Looking at capacity utilization of key downstream sectors, operating rates diverged but were broadly weak: monoammonium phosphate utilization was 51.26%, down 0.66 percentage points from the previous period; diammonium phosphate utilization was 43.78%, up only 0.24 percentage points; titanium dioxide utilization was 71.77%, up 0.22 percentage points; caprolactam utilization was 67.75%, down 0.11 percentage points. Downstream margins were broadly negative, further curbing purchasing willingness: MAP profit was -1,436 yuan/ton, DAP profit -1,653 yuan/ton, titanium dioxide profit -3,247 yuan/ton, and caprolactam profit -1,093 yuan/ton. With downstream producers themselves mired in losses, procurement was limited to rigid demand, restocking willingness was generally low, and actual transaction volumes failed to expand effectively.
4. Short-term outlook: sulfuric acid market to remain weak and continue drifting lower
Domestic sulfuric acid prices are expected to continue declining next week. On the supply side, overall industry operating rates will see limited change, with mainstream units running steadily and market supply remaining ample. Sulfur-burning acid units that were previously shut down or cut production due to cost pressure currently have no restart plans, leaving limited supply-side flexibility. On the demand side, although a modest recovery is expected in phosphate fertilizer and chemical sectors, current downstream purchasing sentiment is depressed. High costs, combined with a “buy on rising, not falling” mentality, will limit actual transaction follow-through and provide no effective support for prices. Cost-side support is also absent: sulfur prices have retreated from earlier highs, but their absolute level remains significantly above spot sulfuric acid prices; this negative spread continues to suppress the economics of sulfur-burning acid production. Costs for pyrite-based acid have weakened further as feedstock prices collapsed. While smelting acid costs remain relatively stable, smelting acid is a byproduct, and the smelting industry as a whole still retains profit margins, so producers have little incentive to voluntarily cut output in the near term. In summary, ample supply, weak demand, and a lack of cost support create no upward momentum in the short term. Sulfuric acid prices are expected to remain under pressure next week; market participants will likely stay on the sidelines, and the transaction center may continue to move modestly lower.
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