Market Review: In the first half of January 2026, the domestic dichloromethane market exhibited a pattern of initial decline followed by a rebound, with a volatile yet moderately strong trend. The core drivers were "supply contraction + rising costs + underlying rigid demand support." According to monitoring by the Business Society Commodity Market Analysis System, as of January 15, the average price of bulk dichloromethane in Shandong was reported at 1,732 yuan/ton, representing a 2.06% increase compared to the beginning of the month.
Supply Side: High Operating Rates Recede + Inventory Reduction Expectations, Supporting Price Rebound
Following the New Year holiday, the operating rate of methyl chloride units remained high at 81%, with major producers operating at full capacity, putting pressure on market supply. Producers proactively reduced prices to destock. By mid-month, the operating rate gradually declined to 75.8%, with fluctuations in the load of some production units. This contraction in industry supply elasticity alleviated inventory pressure and strengthened producers' willingness to support prices, driving a continuous price recovery.
Cost Side: Dual Increases in Methanol + Liquid Chlorine, Fortifying Cost Support
Methanol: Expectations of reduced imports combined with significant port destocking. As of January 15, the Business Society methanol benchmark price was 2,269.17 yuan/ton, up 2.79% from the beginning of the month.
Liquid Chlorine: Stable procurement by downstream chlorine-consuming industries pushed ex-factory tanker prices in Shandong to 300-400 yuan/ton. This increased cost pressure for methyl chloride producers, driving upward price transmission for dichloromethane.
Demand Side: Underlying Rigid Demand Support
Rigid demand procurement remained stable, with restocking activities by some enterprises boosting localized transaction volumes.
Market Outlook:
Supply-side operating rates are expected to stabilize, with controllable inventory levels. On the cost side, methanol and liquid chlorine are likely to exhibit strong volatility, sustaining cost support. On the demand side, attention should be paid to pre-holiday stocking pace, regional weather conditions, and potential logistics constraints around the Spring Festival. It is anticipated that dichloromethane prices will stabilize or show narrow-range strength, with limited support for significant price increases.
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