The post-holiday market has exhibited a pattern of "fading supply-side support and price stabilization through stalemate." The earlier expectations of supply contraction due to localized plant maintenance have largely been digested by the market. Meanwhile, downstream demand recovery has been sluggish, leading to insufficient upward momentum and ushering prices into a phase of narrow-range consolidation. **I. Market Dynamics and Price Performance** 1. **Price Trend:** * **Post-Holiday Stabilization:** As of January 5th, the business-to-business benchmark price for melamine stood at 5,637.50 RMB/ton, unchanged from the beginning of the month and essentially flat compared to late December 2025, with only minor adjustments of around ±50 RMB/ton in some regions. * **"Nominal Price, Thin Market" Characteristic Emerges:** While quoted prices remain stable, actual market transaction activity is modest. Downstream acceptance of current prices is limited, with procurement primarily consisting of small orders for immediate needs. 2. **Supply Side:** Plants that underwent maintenance around late December 2025 and during the New Year holiday (e.g., in Shandong, Xinjiang) have gradually resumed operations. The industry's overall operating rate has recovered from approximately 65% pre-holiday to 70%-72%. With supply returning, previous market concerns over tight supply have dissipated. However, given that the current operating rate remains at a medium level for this time of year historically, it has not yet created severe oversupply pressure. 3. **Cost Side:** The price of urea, a key raw material, also showed a stable-to-weak trend after the holiday. As of January 5th, the b2b benchmark price for urea was 1,725.00 RMB/ton, unchanged from the month's start, providing limited cost support for melamine. 4. **Demand Side:** Major downstream industries such as wood-based panels and coatings have experienced a slow post-holiday resumption of work. The release of new orders has been insufficient, leading to a wait-and-see attitude towards melamine procurement, with a focus on digesting pre-holiday inventories. International market demand shows no significant bright spots, and the volume of newly signed export orders is limited, failing to provide effective support to the domestic market. **II. Core Market Analysis** * **"Fading Support" is the Key Phrase:** The primary driver behind the minor uptick in late December 2025—supply contraction from maintenance—has concluded. The market driver has shifted from "expectations of tightening supply" to "the reality of supply-demand interplay." * **The Stalemate Behind "Temporary Stability":** The reason prices haven't immediately declined post-supply recovery is mainly due to: 1. **Strong Producer Price Support Intent:** Most plants currently face no inventory pressure and exhibit a willingness to hold prices near cost levels. 2. **Demand Not Yet Fully Discredited:** The market retains some expectation for potential pre-Chinese New Year restocking by downstream users, forming a perceived floor for prices. 3. **Absolute Price Level:** Current prices are in the middle-to-lower range of the past six months, which somewhat constrains the room for further significant declines. In the short term, the market is expected to continue in a pattern of **"range-bound fluctuations under a weak supply-demand balance."** The next directional move for prices will depend on the evolution of the following key factors: **Summary:** The current melamine market is in a transitional phase of **"old drivers exiting, new drivers yet to arrive."** It is advisable for market participants to maintain caution, avoid overly high expectations for a one-sided market trend, focus on range-trading and procurement based on immediate needs in their operations, and closely monitor actual data changes related to the aforementioned points of focus.