1. Supply Increase Within the Cycle, Limited Pre-Holiday Stocking Demand

During this period, supply from certain fermentation ethanol units increased. The weekly capacity utilization rate within the market rose to 50.55%, an increase of 4.23% compared to the previous period.

Changes in Ethanol Market Operating Rates

Data Source: Chempricehub Information

Regional Changes in Ethanol Operating Rates

Data Source: Chempricehub Information

In this period, bio-fermentation ethanol supply increased, while coal-based ethanol production remained stable. Hongzhan Jixian Phase II and Huannan units resumed production; Huating unit resumed production; Sichuan Hongzhan unit resumed production. All Hongzhan units have resumed operations. Wanli is operating normally; COFCO Zhaodong fuel ethanol production is stable; Zhongke Green has shut down; Shenglong is operating normally. Jilin Fukang unit is producing; Jilin New Tianlong is producing; Dongfeng Hualiang unit is shut down; Yushu unit is producing. Zhalantun unit is producing. SDIC Hailun and Jidong units are producing; Tieling is producing. Three factories in Mengzhou, Henan are running normally; Xinxing Bio is producing. Sichuan Hongzhan unit is producing. Anhui COFCO unit: Bengbu lines (two) are producing, Suzhou line is shut down; Anhui Wanshen is producing; Shandong Qufeng unit is producing; Jinyimeng is shut down; Huating has resumed production. Guangxi COFCO is shut down; Guangxi Xintiande unit is producing; Guangxi Jinyuan unit is shut down. Coal-based ethanol supply remains stable. Shandong factory is producing; Shaanxi Yushen Energy Chemical output is stable; Xinghua Chemical is producing; Yulin Kaiyue unit is shut down; Anhui unit production is stable; Guangdong Daya Bay unit is producing; Henan Anyang operating rate is stable; Henan Yongcheng unit is shut down; Jingmen Yuanhan unit is producing; Hunan factory units are producing; Xinjiang Tianye unit has started feeding but has not yet produced product. Downstream chemical ethyl acetate operating rates declined; Ruibai Henan unit experienced an unexpected shutdown; other chemical enterprises engaged in rigid-demand replenishment before the holiday.

The weekly capacity utilization rate for Chinese ethyl methyl carbonate was 35.5%, unchanged week-on-week. Units within the market are operating normally. Downstream demand is primarily contract-based; the domestic ethyl methyl carbonate market remains fair, with new contract orders being executed and small amounts of spot goods trading at high levels. It is expected that the weekly capacity utilization rate for domestic ethyl methyl carbonate will fluctuate narrowly in the next cycle.

Capacity Utilization Rate of Major Downstream Products

2. Ethanol Trends Stable Before Holiday, Limited Fluctuations Within the Cycle

Weekly Price List for Ethanol and Related Products

Data Source: Chempricehub Information

Specifically, corn ethanol prices in Jilin, Northeast China, rose slightly, while corn ethanol prices in Heilongjiang remained stable with a firm trend. Bio-fermentation ethanol supply increased within the market during this period. Hongzhan Jixian Phase II and Huannan units resumed production; Huating unit resumed production; Sichuan Hongzhan unit resumed production. All Hongzhan units have resumed operations. Wanli is operating normally; COFCO Zhaodong fuel ethanol production is stable; Zhongke Green has shut down; Shenglong is operating normally. Jilin Fukang unit is producing; Jilin New Tianlong is producing; Dongfeng Hualiang unit is shut down; Yushu unit is producing. Zhalantun unit is producing. SDIC Hailun and Jidong units are producing; Tieling is producing. Three factories in Mengzhou, Henan are running normally; Xinxing Bio is producing. Sichuan Hongzhan unit is producing. Anhui COFCO unit: Bengbu lines (two) are producing, Suzhou line is shut down; Anhui Wanshen is producing; Shandong Qufeng unit is producing; Jinyimeng is shut down; Huating has resumed production. Guangxi COFCO is shut down; Guangxi Xintiande unit is producing; Guangxi Jinyuan unit is shut down. Regarding costs, the average national corn price declined. Corn prices fell in Northeast China; corn prices in Henan fell then rose slightly; corn prices in Heilongjiang fell. Factory supply in the Heilongjiang region of Northeast China is stable; downstream chemical enterprises are engaging in rigid-demand procurement; factory inventories are low; freight rates continue to rise to high levels, pushing delivered prices up. Supply in the Jilin region is stable, with shipments fulfilling contract orders. Cassava ethanol prices in East China rose; prices increased in Shandong and Anhui regions. Cassava ethanol factories have low operating rates; major factory units have resumed production; downstream chemical demand focuses on bio-fermentation ethanol. Due to rising freight costs in main production areas, delivered prices have increased. Some downstream enterprises increased pre-holiday stocking. Rigid-demand procurement occurred in Zhenjiang and Shanghai. Wheat ethanol factory quotes in Shandong rose; downstream enterprises engaged in rigid-demand procurement, leading to higher delivered prices. Premium ethanol prices in Henan rose first and then stabilized. Three factory units in Mengzhou are running normally; pickup volumes at factory gates remain decent; prices had risen previously. The ethanol market in Sichuan remained stable. Sichuan Hongzhan unit resumed production this period, keeping local supply at a high level. Demand from downstream baijiu (liquor) producers increased; factory quotes remained steady, but transactions were limited. Downstream buyers mostly consumed supplies from Northeast China and Henan. Prices in South China remained stable. Cassava ethanol supply in South China is stable. Guangxi COFCO unit is shut down; Xintiande unit is producing; Jinyuan unit is shut down; Haiying unit is producing; Guangxi Wanshen is producing. Transactions were driven by downstream rigid demand.