【Introduction】In early August, the domestic vinyl acetate market continued the upward trend from late July. In the first half of the month, as previously maintained units gradually resumed operations, the supply side turned loose, putting pressure on market conditions. Prices in some regional markets continued to decline, with monthly prices showing a divergent pattern of high-then-low movement. Specific analysis is as follows:
Supply shifts from tight to loose
At the beginning of the month, the supply side had not yet fully released incremental volumes from previously maintained units, and spot resources remained generally scarce. Major producers faced limited inventory pressure, and holders were strongly inclined to hold inventories rather than sell at low prices, with offers maintaining a mid-to-high range. On the demand side, downstream buyers followed up with just-in-time purchasing, showing limited acceptance of high-priced supplies and mostly executing contract volumes. New spot transactions saw insufficient volume growth, creating a standoff between supply and demand. As some maintained units entered the resumption phase, industry operating rates were expected to continue recovering later in the period, and expectations of incremental spot supply tempered high prices. The high-end negotiation range loosened compared to earlier levels, but the tight spot supply-demand balance had not yet been completely reversed, and mainstream offers remained stable at high levels.
In the first half of the month, previously maintained vinyl acetate units—including Changcheng Energy & Chemical's 450,000-ton/year unit, Xiangwei's 200,000-ton/year unit, and Levima's 90,000-ton/year unit—successively resumed operations. The overall industry operating load steadily increased, and market circulation of goods gradually turned loose, further intensifying spot supply pressure. Downstream buyers maintained conservative purchasing rhythms with no bulk replenishment operations. Combined with weakening cost-side support, holders increasingly offered concessions to move goods, and prices in some regional markets continued to decline. However, some enterprises executing contracts still maintained price-supportive sentiment and kept external quotations stable. Taking East China petrochemical prices as an example, the high and low end of negotiations ranged at 6,650–6,700 yuan/ton, flat with the start of the month. Nevertheless, the vinyl acetate industry presented a situation of loose supply and insufficient demand follow-through, with holders actively discounting to sell, low-priced supplies impacting the market, and the negotiable price range continuing to widen.
Cost-side support weakens
With fluctuations in international crude oil, naphtha prices fell notably, and ethylene prices edged down, directly compressing the production costs of ethylene-based vinyl acetate and weakening the cost floor support of the oil-based route. On the glacial acetic acid side, supply-side operating loads increased, adding to spot supply, while upstream methanol simultaneously maintained weak and volatile movements, further lowering glacial acetic acid production costs. Under these dual negative factors, glacial acetic acid price centers continued to trend downward, correspondingly weakening cost support for vinyl acetate.
Hot-season off-season combined with pre-stocking dampens overall market buying
Multiple downstream EVA units underwent maintenance; photovoltaic-grade EVA demand performed relatively well, but the foaming industry was in its traditional off-season with insufficient terminal orders. Combined with environmental rectification shutdowns at some downstream plants in certain regions, demand remained persistently weak and could not lift market sentiment. Industry operating loads stayed low, unable to absorb incremental vinyl acetate supply. Polyvinyl alcohol plants relying on external feedstock have stopped purchasing vinyl acetate externally, and some VAE emulsion supply-side units were under maintenance, further reducing spot demand for vinyl acetate. All three core downstream sectors of vinyl acetate performed weakly, intermediaries replenished cautiously, incremental supply lacked channels for absorption, the loose supply-demand pattern further intensified, and vinyl acetate prices came under pressure.
Outlook for the middle to late part of the month
Looking at the middle to late part of the month, on the vinyl acetate supply side, Shenghong Refining & Chemical's 300,000-ton/year unit is set to restart, and at full production, surplus vinyl acetate will continue to flow into the spot market, further intensifying supply-side pressure. Combined with the absence of any clear positive demand-side signals and intermediaries adopting a cautious wait-and-see stance, the vinyl acetate fundamentals remain under sustained pressure. Prices are expected to retain further downside room in the middle to late part of the month.
Toward month-end, downstream feedstock inventories at many plants have generally been depleted to low levels. Based on seasonal industry patterns, September–October represents the traditional "Golden September, Silver October" demand peak season for the industrial chain, and downstream buyers need to stock up in preparation for higher operating rates. As local temperatures gradually decline, terminal sectors including building coatings, home decoration adhesives, and photovoltaic encapsulation films will enter their traditional demand peak season. Downstream plants with previously low inventories are expected to have concentrated replenishment expectations. Intermediaries are reluctant to sell at low prices, and cost-side support is expected to strengthen moderately, offering hope that vinyl acetate market prices may stabilize and stop declining.
It is worth noting that September–October constitutes the key observation window for vinyl acetate market trends in the second half of the year. However, the strength of this year's peak-season recovery carries notable uncertainty, with a high risk of demand divergence. Supply-side pressure cannot be ignored, and with long and short factors contending in the market, prices may struggle to show a sustained unilateral uptrend.
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