Supply-Demand Imbalance Persists, Acrylonitrile Market Continues to Weaken

During the New Year's Day period, the domestic acrylonitrile market saw negotiated discounts. As of January 4, the average mainstream price of acrylonitrile was 7,450 yuan/ton, showing a slight decline compared to pre-holiday levels. Most plants maintained high operating rates, while downstream resistance was evident, leaving the overall market in a state of strong supply and weak demand.

Market Analysis During the New Year's Day Period:
A review of acrylonitrile price trends before and after New Year's Day from 2023 to 2026 reveals that prices mostly rose during this period over the past three years. Although prices remained unchanged on the first day after the holiday, they generally trended upward in the week following the holiday. The main reasons for the price increases were manufacturers' strong willingness to support prices, as acrylonitrile plants began reducing production and controlling output in the fourth quarter. Coupled with rising costs, the spot market also moved upward. However, during this year's New Year's Day holiday, acrylonitrile prices were negotiated with discounts, and the market was primarily adjusted at lower levels. The reasons for this include the fact that, despite maintenance at some individual plants, overall operating rates remained high, increasing supply pressure. Additionally, the acrylonitrile market trended weakly downward, and downstream stocking sentiment remained cautious.

Post-Holiday Fundamental Changes:

• Supply Side: In January, the Haijiang plant remains under maintenance, leading to a decline in acrylonitrile industry operating rates. However, acrylonitrile plants still face inventory pressure, so supply pressure is expected to ease only marginally in January.
• Demand Side:
  • Acrylic Fiber: Overall operating rates may increase this month, but attention should be paid to changes at the Jigao plant. Demand remains acceptable.
  • ABS: Considering the theoretical losses faced by petrochemical manufacturers and maintenance operations at plants such as Zhejiang Petrochemical, tight supply of some circulating materials may persist. In the middle to late part of the month, as the Spring Festival approaches, some downstream enterprises may gradually prepare for holidays. Meanwhile, new plants such as Jilin Petrochemical continue to ramp up production, and some previously idled plants may restart, potentially leading to a slight increase in overall demand.

Trend Forecast:
In the short term, the acrylonitrile market is expected to show a trend of initial weakness followed by stabilization, with low-level fluctuations. In the first half of the month, supply will remain ample, and downstream demand will be limited to rigid procurement, putting pressure on prices. In the middle to late part of the month, prices may gradually stabilize due to maintenance/reduced loads at some plants and inventory drawdowns. However, the rebound potential will be constrained by demand and costs. As the Spring Festival approaches in January, some enterprises may increase efforts to recover funds, potentially leading to low-price sales, which could exert short-term pressure on prices.