Lead: Recently, some export orders have entered the market for procurement, and downstream domestic demand has improved slightly compared to the earlier period. Aniline shipments have warmed up, halting the market's downward trend.
Raw material prices are weak and consolidating, costs remain subdued
East China port inventories continue to destock, showing some signs of tightening on the supply side. However, downstream demand remains weak, and end-user product shipments are sluggish. This leads to insufficient purchasing power for spot benzene, with market participants mainly consuming existing inventories, making it difficult to support price stabilization. In northern China, benzene supply is ample, and supplies of the substitute hydrogenated benzene are impacting the Shandong market. This keeps prices in the Shandong region persistently low and unable to rise, further dragging down prices in the East China market. The overall market has fallen into a weak pattern dominated by lackluster demand. International crude oil prices showed a volatile trend during this period, but the benzene market exhibited a characteristic of "following declines but not advances." This phenomenon more directly reflects the suppression of the market by weak downstream demand.
Frequent supply-side fluctuations, difficult to reverse pessimistic market sentiment
Table: Aniline Plant Maintenance Schedule (Unit: 10,000 tons)
| Plant | Capacity | Reason for Maintenance | Start Date | End Date | Duration (Days) | Production Loss This Period (10,000 tons) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jilin Xuyang Connell | 18 | Long-term shutdown | 2025/3/20 | / | / | 0.38 |
| Shanghai BASF | 18 | Planned maintenance | 2026/5/12 | 2026/6/6 | 25 | 0.38 |
| Jiangsu Fuqiang | 10 | Planned maintenance | 2026/5/20 | 2026/6/6 | 17 | 0.21 |
| Dongying Caijin | 3 | Unplanned maintenance | 2026/6/4 | 2026/6/7 | 3 | 0.03 |
The return of Shanghai BASF has brought a clear positive boost to the market. The continued execution of shipment orders has significantly relieved the sales pressure for some companies. However, the merchantable volume from certain enterprises is concentrated in the spot truck transport market, so sales and inventory pressure persist. Earlier in the week, news emerged of an unplanned shutdown for catalyst replacement, but the market has become desensitized to supply-side changes. Weak demand and sluggish end-user consumption have kept most buyers cautious, maintaining a hand-to-mouth procurement approach.
No signs of improvement in end-user sectors; aniline market expected to remain weak
From the supply side, with the return of Shanghai BASF, industry output is expected to continue rising. Some truck-transported merchantable volume is being redirected to downstream factory warehouses via shipment orders, slightly reducing spot market availability. However, most plants are operating normally, keeping spot supply ample. On the demand side, domestic demand has improved somewhat due to the return of Shanghai BASF, but performance in other industries remains sluggish. For exports, some negotiations are proceeding as usual, but overall performance is average. On the cost side, benzene and nitric acid remain weak, limiting the scope for changes in aniline profitability.
In summary, the domestic aniline market is expected to remain weak in the next period, with prices potentially operating around 9,500 yuan/ton. Attention should continue to be paid to export negotiations and the operational status of domestic downstream consumers.
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