Supply Recovery Falls Short of Expectations; Cracked C5 Prices Continue to Rise (Aug 28–Sep 3, 2026)

1. Market focus this week

• East China mixed C5 prices rose by 4.53%; Shandong cracked C5 raffinate prices fell by 0.57%.
• Deep-processing pentadienes rose; petroleum resin prices saw scattered increases.
• Cracked C5 supply declined slightly.

2. Weekly market analysis

During the week (August 28 to September 3, 2026), industrial cracked C5 prices were raised by 450–500 yuan/ton to 6,550–6,700 yuan/ton. Crude oil prices rose this week, and refined oil product inventories remained low, driving Shandong mixed C5 prices to continue climbing and providing support to cracked C5 raffinate prices. As a result, bidding prices at private-sector cracked C5 auctions kept hitting fresh highs. On the deep-processing side, pentadiene monomer spot supply was tight, and prices were pushed up steadily. For petroleum resin, domestic and foreign demand remained weak, limiting the upward price support from feedstocks.

3. Analysis of market influence factors

During the period, the domestic dicyclopentadiene (DCPD) market continued its upward trend as feedstock supply tightened further. Although some C5 separation units were gradually restarting, no product had come onto the market within the week; some plants were negotiating export orders and showed little willingness to release spot material. At the same time, feedstock cracked C5 continued to firm, and the shift of C5 toward oil-product outlets intensified, further tightening an already supply-constrained spot market. On the downstream side, UPR maintained rigid demand, but the price spread with phthalic anhydride narrowed its cost-effectiveness. With spot tightness unlikely to ease in the short term, demand is expected to weaken. Meanwhile, hydrogenated resin demand was soft, providing limited overall support. As of September 3, DCPD self-pickup prices stood at 7,900–8,500 yuan/ton, with the low end for regular contract customers and the high end more oriented toward spot transactions.

During the period, domestic piperylene prices increased, with the low end up by 600 yuan/ton and the high end up by 200 yuan/ton, bringing ex-works prices to 8,200–9,000 yuan/ton. Higher crude oil and cracked C5 prices supported the cost side. On the supply side, the restarted units at Hongjing, Derong, and Jieyang Yikesi had not yet produced output; some producers lowered operating rates, and the market remained tight. Downstream, resin and curing-agent prices rose, and plant operations were generally stable, sustaining rigid feedstock demand. However, industry orders and margins remained weak, limiting buyers’ ability to chase higher feedstock prices.

During the period, domestic isoprene prices continued to rise. In the mainstream market, the low end of bid/offer prices rose by 400 yuan/ton, while the high end held steady at 13,000–13,300 yuan/ton. Higher crude oil and cracked C5 prices supported the cost side. On the supply side, restarting units at Hongjing, Derong, and Jieyang Yikesi had yet to produce on-spec material; some existing producers cut operating loads, keeping supply relatively tight and underpinning producers’ price-firming stance. Downstream, SIS prices rose, rigid feedstock demand remained in place, other downstream segments showed acceptable price-bearing capacity, and export arbitrage continued. As a result, isoprene prices maintained a firm tone.

During the period, the cracked C5 raffinate market fluctuated upward, with the average price closing higher. As of September 3, the national weekly average price of cracked C5 raffinate was 7,107 yuan/ton, up 400 yuan/ton from the previous week, an increase of 5.96%. Specifically, domestic cracked C5 raffinate prices ranged from 7,790 to 8,190 yuan/ton this week. The US–Iran military conflict re-emerged, strengthening market concerns over geopolitical and supply risks and pushing international oil prices higher. In Shandong, refined oil product prices surged quickly, while midstream and downstream participants gradually slowed their buying pace and the gasoline market turned calmer. Similar-product mixed C5 followed gasoline price gains, refinery internal use increased, and market trading sentiment was active. Bolstered by multiple positive factors, cracked C5 raffinate producers successively followed with price hikes. Traders and downstream plants accelerated market participation, and trading activity heated up.

4. Next week's market forecast

Cracked C5 prices are expected to move higher in a stable fashion next week. Key points to watch:

1. Zhongying Petrochemical will resume supply, and overall output will increase slightly.
2. Demand from downstream non-deep-processing outlets is expected to weaken as the gasoline market softens; therefore, support for cracked C5 raffinate will weaken, and prices may fluctuate slightly downward.
3. On the deep-processing side, the room for pushing pentadiene prices higher is limited, and petroleum resin is unlikely to drive any notable upward movement.