① Monthly output decreased by 15,700 metric tons to 202,300 metric tons;
② Consumption increased by 8.42% month-on-month;
③ Profit decreased by 700% month-on-month.
Data source: Chempricehub
Monthly price change table for domestic n-butanol market
Unit: CNY/metric ton
| Region/Category | Average of previous period | Average of current period | Change | Change % | Unit |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Shandong | 6,449 | 7,004 | 555 | 8.61% | CNY/metric ton |
| Jiangsu | 6,551 | 7,113 | 562 | 8.58% | CNY/metric ton |
| South China | 6,460 | 6,965 | 505 | 7.82% | CNY/metric ton |
Data source: Chempricehub
In August, the price center of gravity in the domestic n-butanol market continued to move upward. At the beginning of the month, with planned maintenance units successively entering shutdown for overhaul, overall supply contracted significantly amid concentrated stoppages. Since downstream raw material stocking had been less than ideal previously, this stimulated downstream players' willingness to purchase at lower levels, shifting the market into a supply-deficient pattern and pushing transaction prices to new highs. Toward the end of the month, after n-butanol prices had climbed to high levels, international crude oil prices fell sharply and continuously, dragging feedstock propylene prices downward. Cost-side support subsequently weakened. Meanwhile, downstream sentiment turned increasingly bearish, and buying interest declined as participants focused on consuming existing raw material inventories. As a result, market trading sentiment gradually cooled, high prices gradually disappeared, and because overall supply remained persistently tight, the price center of gravity declined only slowly.
① Price trends of international crude oil and feedstock propylene.
② Operating conditions of the three major downstream units and changes in market demand.
③ Maintenance status of n-butanol units.
The domestic n-butanol market price in September is expected to fluctuate with a weak bias. In terms of supply, the units that were under maintenance in August are expected to gradually restart and resume production, slowly easing the tight supply situation. In addition, with new units expected to come on stream later, market supply and spot external sales volumes are expected to increase, further intensifying bearish sentiment. Downstream producers will continue steady operation, but their overall purchasing stance will remain cautious, focusing mainly on just-in-time procurement, which provides limited support to market prices. On the raw material cost side, prices remain significantly influenced by fluctuations in international crude oil, and the upstream propylene market is hovering at high levels with range-bound consolidation, causing cost-side support to weaken. In summary, with rising supply and reduced cost support, combined with heightened wait-and-see sentiment and declining transaction volumes, the domestic n-butanol market price in September is expected to follow a high-to-low downward trend.
For more monthly market analyses, please see the Chempricehub Butanol/Octanol Monthly Report.
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