Pre-holiday n-octanol supply remained ample, with market participants offering discounts to facilitate sales.

Lead-in: With the National Day holiday approaching, the domestic 2-EH (2-ethylhexanol) market is characterized by increased supply and limited demand growth. Currently, the profit margin for 2-EH stands at RMB 200–300 per ton, providing a certain buffer. However, under the pressure of loose supply and inventory accumulation at some enterprises, market prices are trending lower as sellers offer discounts ahead of the holiday.

I. Supply Side: Higher Operating Rates Lead to Looser Spot Supply

Ahead of the holiday, the operating rate of domestic 2-EH plants has risen to approximately 73%, an increase of 2 percentage points compared to early-to-mid September, indicating enhanced supply capacity. As plant loads have increased, spot supply has gradually become looser, leading to inventory accumulation at some manufacturers. The price support from the supply side has weakened. To control inventories and promote shipments, sales strategies have become more flexible, with an increased willingness among manufacturers to offer discounts before the National Day holiday.

II. Demand Side: Limited Increase in Plasticizer Loads; Purchases Driven by Rigidity

Downstream plasticizer plants have slightly increased their loads. On September 20, the operating rate for DOP was 56% and for DOTP was 62%, resulting in only a limited increase in rigid demand for 2-EH. Most plasticizer factories purchase raw materials based on order status, lacking the incentive for large-scale concentrated stockpiling. In the short term, end-user orders have not shown significant improvement, making it difficult for downstream consumption growth to match the increase in supply. Restocking by intermediaries to cover short positions may provide temporary transaction support before the holiday, but its sustainability is relatively limited. Market participants are closely watching restocking activities by end-users.

III. Room for Price Concessions Exists

The current profit margin for 2-EH is RMB 200–300 per ton, giving manufacturers some room for concessions. However, against the backdrop of loose supply and inventory accumulation, factories are mostly selling at discounted prices to reduce pre-holiday inventory pressure. Since propylene prices remain volatile at relatively high levels, the space for 2-EH price concessions is gradually narrowing.

Some manufacturers have begun accumulating inventories, as the growth in supply exceeds the pace of demand increase. Downstream buyers are purchasing according to orders and maintaining a cautious sentiment.

IV. Outlook: Market Center Under Pressure Before the Holiday

In summary, the primary contradiction in the 2-EH market before the National Day holiday lies between rising supply expectations and insufficient demand follow-through. While restocking by intermediaries to cover short positions and slight load increases by downstream users may generate some transactions, they are unlikely to reverse the loose spot supply situation. It is expected that 2-EH prices will continue to trend weakly in the short term. Market participants should focus on two key factors: first, whether 2-EH plant operating rates will remain at high levels; and second, the status of plasticizer orders and plant operating rates during the National Day holiday.