Recently, the domestic acrylonitrile market has exhibited a typical "bull-bear tug-of-war" pattern. On one hand, the supply side has seen a significant reduction due to concentrated plant maintenance, providing bottom support for prices. On the other hand, persistently weak downstream demand and localized inventory pressures have hindered upward price momentum, leading to a decline from earlier highs. In the short term, supported by raw material costs and external demand, the acrylonitrile market is expected to maintain a range-bound fluctuation.

Entering mid-to-late April, the domestic acrylonitrile market ended its earlier upward trend driven by tight overseas supply and shifted into a downward channel. As of April 24, the mainstream ex-tank price at East China ports was around 11,000 yuan/ton, a notable drop of 9% from the 12,100-12,150 yuan/ton level in early April. During this period, the high cost of acrylonitrile was not effectively passed downstream, and insufficient terminal demand led to a gradual negative feedback impact. Operating rates for direct downstream sectors, such as acrylic fiber and ABS, declined significantly, resulting in overall domestic demand contraction. Additionally, as overseas demand orders for May wind down, export negotiations have faced a gap, increasing localized sales pressure. Suppliers have thus actively cut prices to promote sales, with the market steadily declining since mid-April.

However, the supply side subsequently initiated a concentrated reduction, helping to slow the pace of price declines. In addition to routine maintenance, continued price drops led to renewed production losses, prompting companies to shut down for overhauls. For instance, Jilin Petrochemical is currently operating at only 50% capacity, Keluer's 260,000-ton/year plant has begun major maintenance, Zhejiang Petrochemical and Shanghai SECCO plants are running at reduced loads, and CNOOC's Fudao plant has yet to resume operations. The domestic acrylonitrile industry's capacity utilization rate has fallen to around 64%.

Looking ahead to the near-term market, the acrylonitrile market is undergoing a phased bottoming-out, making another round of sharp unilateral fluctuations less likely. First, current prices are approaching the production cost lines of some enterprises, strengthening their willingness to support prices. Second, supply remains tight overseas, particularly in South Asia, and the continued diversion of export orders will still provide a buffer for the domestic market. However, there are no signs of a substantial recovery in domestic terminal demand, and downstream users are cautious in their stocking, with the acrylic fiber sector expected to maintain low operating rates for some time. Additionally, social inventory digestion remains slow. In the short term, market prices are expected to fluctuate within a range of 10,500-11,000 yuan/ton. After the April contract cycle ends, the price gap between northern and southern markets will gradually narrow, but the direction of convergence will still depend on the movements of major manufacturers.