Introduction: In the first half of 2026, the domestic acrylic acid market exhibited a trend of rising then falling, caught in a dual battle between cost-driven forces and weak demand. Intensive new capacity releases during the period led to a significant year-on-year increase in production, yet downstream consumption growth lagged. The overall supply-demand pattern was characterized by strong supply and weak demand, with prices pulling back continuously after a brief peak.
I. Acrylic Acid Spot Price Trends
In the first half of 2026, the overall price trend of the domestic acrylic acid market showed an inverted "V" shape. At the beginning of the year, the market continued its previous downturn, with prices at historically low levels and thin trading. Plant operations were stable, but sales pressure persisted. From mid-to-late January, as some rigid demand gradually emerged and factory offers became firm, market sentiment began to recover, and prices rose moderately. March marked the turning point for the first half: upstream raw material propylene prices surged, providing strong cost support for acrylic acid. Bullish sentiment was instantly ignited, and prices experienced a rare sharp jump, quickly reaching the year's highest level. Factories and traders kept raising offers, and market heat peaked. However, after such rapid and excessive price increases, downstream acceptance of high-priced raw materials declined noticeably. Procurement mainly focused on digesting earlier contracts, spot trading lacked follow-up momentum, and the market showed signs of fatigue. Entering the second quarter, high-price transmission downstream was blocked, and demand negative feedback gradually emerged. Combined with declining operating rates in industries such as coatings and adhesives, demand support for acrylic acid continued to weaken, shifting the market from tight to loose. From April onward, prices entered a slow downward channel; the decline accelerated in May and further expanded in June. Although raw material propylene prices occasionally stopped falling and rebounded, market wait-and-see sentiment was strong, buying interest was limited, and it was unable to reverse the overall downturn. By the end of the half year, acrylic acid market prices had basically given back most of the year's gains and returned to relatively low levels.
II. Changes in Acrylic Acid Supply in the First Half
In the first half of 2026, the supply side of the domestic acrylic acid market showed a significant expansion trend. In terms of capacity, a total of 370,000 tons/year of new capacity was added in the first half, mainly from the concentrated start-up of three new units: Zhanba (190,000 tons/year), Tianjin Bohua (80,000 tons/year), and Shandong Nuol (100,000 tons/year). This represented a 15.63% increase in capacity compared to the first half of 2025, with a clear acceleration in expansion. Regionally, East China remained the largest capacity base, while North China and South China saw accelerated additions. Northeast and Northwest regions had relatively smaller volumes. The industry's compound annual growth rate over the years reached 7.6%. In terms of production, total acrylic acid output from January to June was estimated at 1.91 million tons, up 11.7% year-on-year. Most months saw higher output than the same period last year, indicating a significant supply increase. However, operating rates were high early but then declined. The operating rate was as high as 86% in January, then gradually fell, dropping to 65% in June as some companies concentrated maintenance. Overall, new capacity was released intensively in the first half, and production increased significantly year-on-year. Although the operating rate declined periodically, the supply side remained broadly loose.
During the first half, the domestic acrylic acid import market showed a notable expansion, but overall external dependence remained very low. According to Chempricehub statistics, total acrylic acid imports from January to May 2026 were approximately 19,800 tons, a sharp increase of 161% compared to the same period last year. Monthly import volumes fluctuated frequently; in some months, due to domestic plant maintenance and periodic supply-demand mismatches, import volumes increased as a supplementary supply, but the absolute volume remained limited. In terms of import dependence, from January to May 2026, it fluctuated between 0.19% and 2.17%, remaining at a low level overall. This reflects the continuously enhanced self-sufficiency of domestic acrylic acid, with imports serving only as a periodic supplement and having little substantial impact on domestic pricing power. Overall, although import volumes increased significantly year-on-year, absolute volumes were limited. Against the backdrop of ample domestic supply, the marginal impact of imports on the overall market is relatively small.
III. Changes in Acrylic Acid Consumption in the First Half
In the first half, overall end-use consumption of domestic acrylic acid showed limited growth and clear structural differentiation. Looking at downstream operating rates, the operating rate of the main downstream product, butyl acrylate, remained in a relatively stable range. However, constrained by the weaker-than-expected recovery in end-use demand from coatings, adhesives, and other industries, its consumption support for acrylic acid was relatively limited. The operating rate of the SAP resin industry gradually declined, mainly due to the seasonal drop in demand for sanitary materials and personal care products; downstream procurement mostly maintained a rigid pace. The operating rate of the water treatment industry was generally at a low level, with weak demand at the beginning of the year. Although it recovered somewhat in the second quarter with the arrival of the construction season, the volume was limited and provided minimal overall support to acrylic acid.
From a profit transmission perspective, the profitability of acrylic acid and its main ester products showed significant divergence in the first half of 2026. Acrylic acid's own profit increased by about 1,500 yuan/ton, up 16%. Downstream butyl acrylate profit increased only slightly by 329 yuan/ton, methyl acrylate and ethyl acrylate profits narrowed, while isooctyl acrylate profit rose notably. On the upstream side, propylene (PDH) profit declined to -492 yuan/ton, a drop of 15%. The reallocation of profit within the chain to some extent suppressed downstream end-users' purchasing willingness. Coupled with the slow pace of end-use demand recovery, the growth rate of acrylic acid consumption in the first half was significantly slower than supply growth, resulting in an overall oversupply pattern.
Overall, although apparent consumption of acrylic acid grew under the backdrop of increased supply, downstream operating willingness in many areas was insufficient, procurement pace was slow, and consumption performance was relatively weak, unable to effectively support prices.
IV. Changes in Supply-Demand Balance in the First Half and Forecast for the Second Half
The supply-demand balance for acrylic acid in 2026 (in 10,000 tons) is as follows:
In the first half of 2026, the domestic acrylic acid market's supply-demand pattern featured strong supply and weak demand, along with loose inventory accumulation. On the supply side, the concentrated release of new capacity was the main theme, with the three new plants (Zhanba, Tianjin Bohua, Shandong Nuol) adding a total of 370,000 tons/year, a 15.63% increase over the first half of 2025. This pushed production to 1.91 million tons in the first half, up 11.7% year-on-year. Total domestic supply (including imports) was about 1.933 million tons; imports were about 23,000 tons in January-June, having little impact on the domestic supply pattern. Downstream consumption in the first half was about 1.81 million tons, and total demand (including exports) was about 1.866 million tons, with exports at 56,000 tons. The supply-demand gap stood at about 67,000 tons, resulting in an overall loose oversupply pattern. Prices, driven up by cost support, subsequently pulled back continuously due to weak demand.
Looking ahead to the second half, the domestic acrylic acid market is expected to face a situation of continued new capacity releases interspersed with periodic supply contractions. In terms of new capacity, Tianjin Bohua's second 80,000 tons/year unit is scheduled to start production at the end of July, along with a supporting 50,000 tons/year SAP unit. Shaanxi Yuneng's 80,000 tons/year unit and Ningbo Changhong Polymer's 80,000 tons/year unit are both expected to be commissioned by the end of the year. Based on this, total domestic acrylic acid capacity in 2026 will increase to 5.06 million tons, up about 4.5% from 2025. For production, factors such as new capacity releases, domestic and foreign demand performance, and plant maintenance schedules will likely cause output to gradually rise from August onward, with the overall capacity utilization rate expected to operate in the 70%-80% range. Second-half production is forecast at 2.01 million tons, up 5.24% from the first half. Imports in the second half are expected to be about 32,000 tons, up 39.13% quarter-on-quarter, but the absolute volume remains limited. Exports are forecast at about 49,000 tons in the second half, down 12.5% from the first half, due to overseas demand and price competition. On the demand side, downstream consumption is expected to be about 1.91 million tons, up 5.52% quarter-on-quarter, but the growth rate still lags behind supply. Overall, total supply in the second half is estimated at about 2.042 million tons, total demand at about 1.959 million tons, and the supply-demand gap is expected to widen to 83,000 tons, an increase of 23.88% from the first half. The oversupply pattern is likely to intensify further, requiring close attention to the actual pace of new capacity commissioning and the recovery of downstream demand.
The Chempricehub 11th MMA & Acrylate Industry Conference will be held in Guilin on August 5-7! This conference will focus on downstream acrylate sectors, covering in depth core end-use industries such as super absorbent polymers, specialty esters, adhesive tape master rolls, and acrylic emulsions. It will bring together technology R&D experts, leading researchers from scientific institutions, and representatives from leading companies. The forum will closely align with the latest national policy directions, break through traditional development constraints, and inject fresh momentum into the sustainable development of the acrylate and downstream industry chain through innovative thinking. Participants will engage in forward-looking discussions on industry pain points and opportunities, jointly charting the strategic blueprint for the future. We look forward to meeting you in Guilin in August for this industrial event!
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