Introduction: This month, the domestic sulfuric acid market continues to show a pattern of regional divergence, with both supply and demand weakening simultaneously. High raw material sulfur prices provide strong cost support, while downstream phosphate fertilizers enter the traditional off-season. The chemical sector mainly relies on essential procurement, resulting in overall weak demand. National sulfuric acid plant capacity utilization remains low, and profit margins across different acid production processes vary significantly: sulfur-burning acid losses deepen, while smelter acid maintains substantial profits. In the short term, the market is expected to be dominated by a wait-and-see attitude, with the regional divergence pattern likely to persist.

1. Market Overview: Average Prices Stable, Significant Regional Divergence

Today's chempricehub price index for 98% sulfuric acid is 1,850 yuan/ton, with significant regional differences. Price increases were mainly concentrated in East China, Henan, Fujian, and Northeast China, supported by rising costs and local maintenance, with prices up 20-100 yuan/ton. Price declines were seen in Southwest and Northwest China, influenced by weak demand and inventory pressure, with prices down 100-200 yuan/ton. In Shandong, Henan, Fujian, Guangxi, and other areas, prices remained stable due to supply-demand standoffs.

From core supply-demand data, industry sentiment has declined. Sulfuric acid capacity utilization was 63.36%, down 0.01 percentage points from last week and down 3.03 percentage points year-on-year, remaining at a historical low. Among downstream industries, monoammonium phosphate (MAP) capacity utilization fell to 46.13%, down 2.21 percentage points from the previous month; diammonium phosphate (DAP) capacity utilization dropped to 36.68%, down 2.54 percentage points, indicating accelerated contraction in fertilizer demand. In the chemical sector, titanium dioxide utilization was 75.78%, and caprolactam utilization was 69.41%, down 0.78 and 3.76 percentage points respectively from the previous month, although rigid demand persists.

2. Profit Divergence Intensifies, Operating Rates Vary Significantly

| Product | This Period | Last Period | Change | % Change | Next Period Trend |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| Sulfuric Acid | -275 | -255 | -20 | -7.84% | ↓ |
| MAP | -1392 | -1276 | -116 | -9.09% | ↓ |
| DAP | -2228 | -2147 | -81 | -3.77% | ↓ |
| Titanium Dioxide | -1495 | -1495 | 0 | 0.00% | ↓ |
| Caprolactam | -2606 | -2575 | -31 | -1.20% | ↓ |

Profit performance differs dramatically across acid production processes. This week, sulfur-burning acid profit was approximately -275 yuan/ton, with losses deepening by 20 yuan/ton compared to last week. Due to losses and tight raw material supply, enterprises have been forced to reduce output or undergo maintenance. Pyrite-based acid profit was 69 yuan/ton, essentially unchanged. Smelter acid profit reached 1,500 yuan/ton, remaining stable. Smelter acid enjoys substantial profits due to by-product advantages, leading to relatively stable operations, while sulfur-burning acid enterprises face immense cost pressure. Downstream product losses are also grim: MAP, DAP, titanium dioxide, and caprolactam recorded per-unit losses of 1,392 yuan/ton, 2,228 yuan/ton, 1,495 yuan/ton, and 2,606 yuan/ton respectively. However, titanium dioxide and caprolactam plants also produce other by-products, with theoretical plant profits of 1,205 yuan/ton and 87 yuan/ton.

3. Key Market Analysis: Cost vs. Supply-Demand Game, Mixed Movements

| Market | Spec | This Week | Last Week | Change | % Change |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| Shandong | 98% Sulfur-burning Acid | 2200-2580 | 2400-2480 | -200/100 | -8.33% /4.03% |
| Jiangsu | 98% Sulfur-burning Acid | 2070-2150 | 2100-2150 | -30/0 | -1.43% /0.00% |
| Zhejiang | 98% Sulfur-burning Acid | 2500-2680 | 2400-2500 | 100/180 | 4.17%/7.20% |
| Anhui | 98% Sulfur-burning Acid | 2100-2230 | 2100-2230 | 0/0 | 0.00%/0.00% |
| Hebei | 98% Sulfur-burning Acid | 1820-2250 | 1770-2150 | 50/100 | 2.82%/4.65% |
| Anhui | 98% Smelter Acid | 1660-1690 | 1660-1690 | 0/0 | 0.00%/0.00% |
| Shandong | 98% Smelter Acid | 1350-1700 | 1350-1700 | 0/0 | 0.00%/0.00% |
| Hunan | 98% Smelter Acid | 1720-1750 | 1720-1750 | 0/0 | 0.00%/0.00% |
| Jiangxi | 98% Smelter Acid | 1730-1770 | 1730-1770 | 0/0 | 0.00%/0.00% |
| Henan | 98% Smelter Acid | 1375-1550 | 1375-1550 | 0/0 | 0.00%/0.00% |
| Hubei | 98% Smelter Acid | 1620-1800 | 1600-1800 | 20/0 | 1.25%/0.00% |
| Guangxi | 98% Smelter Acid | 1650-1750 | 1650-1750 | 0/0 | 0.00%/0.00% |
| Guizhou | 98% Smelter Acid | 1700-1800 | 1700-1800 | 0/0 | 0.00%/0.00% |
| Sichuan | 98% Smelter Acid | 1750-1950 | 1750-1950 | 0/0 | 0.00%/0.00% |
| Yunnan | 98% Smelter Acid | 1410-1470 | 1410-1570 | 0/-100 | 0.00%/-6.37% |
| Fujian | 98% Smelter Acid | 1970-2150 | 1850-1950 | 120/200 | 6.49%/10.26% |
| Inner Mongolia | 98% Smelter Acid | 1100-2300 | 1100-2300 | 0/0 | 0.00%/0.00% |
| Liaoning | 98% Smelter Acid | 1650-1850 | 1650-1850 | 0/0 | 0.00%/0.00% |
| Gansu | 98% Smelter Acid | 1640-1910 | 1640-1910 | 0/0 | 0.00%/0.00% |
| Shandong | 98% Pyrite-based Acid | 1810-1850 | 1810-1850 | 0/0 | 0.00%/0.00% |
| Guangdong | 98% Pyrite-based Acid | 1900-2000 | 1900-2000 | 0/0 | 0.00%/0.00% |
| Hebei | 98% Pyrite-based Acid | 1690-2100 | 1630-2100 | 60/0 | 3.68%/0.00% |

Note: Prices for Yunnan, Hubei, Guangxi, Guizhou, Sichuan, and Fujian are delivered-to-plant prices.

East China showed a relatively strong performance. In Shandong, smelter acid supply tightened, with downstream replenishing essential needs. In Jiangsu and Zhejiang, sulfur-burning acid prices remained firm due to cost push, rising 100-180 yuan/ton over the week in Zhejiang, driven by high sulfur prices. Smelter acid was stable. In Anhui, a major smelter was under maintenance, tightening smelter acid supply, with strong enterprise willingness to support prices. Central China saw weak supply and demand, with prices firming slightly. In Hubei, external maintenance and upcoming local maintenance tightened supply, but the phosphate fertilizer off-season weakened demand. In Hunan, demand from new energy and fluorine chemicals was stable, with planned maintenance at a major plant next month supporting prices. In Henan, inter-regional price spreads narrowed, and trading stabilized. Southwest China faced downward pressure. Yunnan cut prices by 100 yuan/ton this week; downstream phosphate fertilizer and phosphorus chemical demand was weak, with acid plants constrained by small tank capacity and rising inventory, leading major plants to offer discounts to boost sales. In Sichuan, new energy demand supported high pyrite-based acid prices, but smelter acid faced competition from low-priced external supplies, leading to discounts on transactions. In Guizhou, supply was ample, and negotiating centers for new orders moved lower. South China saw divergent trends. In Guangxi, low-priced acid from Yunnan flowed in, forcing small acid plants to follow price cuts, while major plants kept prices stable. Titanium dioxide demand was steady, but phosphorus chemicals were weak. In Guangdong, local pyrite-based acid costs were supported by raw materials; maintenance in Shaoguan continued, but overall demand was plain, and external supplies entering the region suppressed prices. In Fujian, sulfur-burning acid operating rates were low, and plants reduced output; prices rose by 120-150 yuan/ton this week. North China, Northeast China, and Northwest China saw mixed movements. In Hebei, cost support was present, but fertilizer demand turned weak, leading to high-level standoffs. Inner Mongolia monthly pricing remained flat; supply and demand were both weak. Liaoning smelter acid rose by 100 yuan/ton due to tightening raw materials and essential demand support. Gansu ran with low inventory, but some plants in Qinghai cut prices by 200 yuan/ton, resulting in local adjustments. The Xinjiang market was supported by low inventory and strong prices.

4. Supply-Demand Balance Analysis: Supply Contracts, Demand Weak

On the supply side, sulfuric acid capacity utilization remains low, with enterprise maintenance and passive output reductions coexisting. Current major maintenance units include Tongling Nonferrous Metals Group in Anhui (1.8 million tons/year, maintenance through end of June), Baiyin in Gansu (700,000 tons/year, maintenance through mid-June), and Yantai Hengbang in Shandong (500,000 tons/year, maintenance starting late May), significantly tightening regional supply. Upcoming major maintenance plans include a major plant in Hubei (1.5 million tons/year) and a major plant in Hunan (250,000 tons/year), both scheduled for early to mid-June. On the demand side, with spring fertilizer application ending, phosphate fertilizer production continues to decline, providing the main drag on sulfuric acid demand. Although operating rates in titanium dioxide and caprolactam industries have fallen, essential procurement still provides some floor support. Overall demand is unlikely to increase, lacking upward impetus.

5. Market Outlook: Wait-and-See Sentiment Intensifies, Regional Divergence Continues

The current sulfuric acid market is trapped in a game between high cost support and weak demand, making it difficult to move significantly in either direction. Next week, the market is expected to maintain a pattern of high-level volatility and regional divergence. On the cost side, sulfur spot resources are tight, prices remain high, ore prices are firm, making it hard for acid production costs to ease. On the demand side, the phosphate fertilizer off-season effect will continue to strengthen, while the chemical sector is mainly driven by essential procurement, unlikely to see a surge in volume. On the supply side, maintenance and partial restarts coexist. Supply is tight in Anhui, Shandong, and Gansu, while Guangdong and Yunnan see some recovery. Market sentiment tends to be wait-and-see, with new order transactions light.

By region, markets such as Hubei, Anhui, Fujian, and Liaoning are expected to perform relatively strongly due to tight supply or cost push. Markets like Yunnan, Guizhou, and Qinghai may remain weak due to inventory pressure and the impact of low-priced supplies. In Shandong, Henan, Hebei, and Inner Mongolia, supply and demand are at a standoff, and prices will likely consolidate narrowly. Key points to watch include sulfur port inventory and price changes, the actual implementation of sulfur supply guarantees for fertilizer enterprises, the progress of plant maintenance restarts, and the pace of downstream chemical industry operating rate recovery.

The current sulfuric acid market can be characterized as "high costs, weak demand, profit divergence, and regional variation." In the short term, the market lacks a unilateral driver, and prices will mainly consolidate narrowly, with both opportunities and risks in regional price spreads.