R1234yf Replacement Trends, Industry Landscape, and Risk Warnings

Under the Kigali Amendment, major global economies are required to phase down high-GWP third-generation refrigerants. This is driving a mandatory transition of automotive air-conditioning refrigerants worldwide from the third generation to the fourth generation.

Table: Policy and regulatory requirements for automotive air-conditioning refrigerants in different countries

Source: Chempricehub

Since R134a (GWP = 1430) exceeds the regulatory limit (150) by nearly 10 times, its phase-out is an irreversible national policy red line. Meanwhile, R1234yf is the only mature alternative that fully aligns with China’s 2030 policy across the four dimensions of GWP, system compatibility, safety, and economics. Compared with R290 (A3 flammable, with limited charge quantity) and R744 (which requires comprehensive modification of air-conditioning systems), R1234yf can directly replace existing R134a systems, making it the "only choice" in the short term. Previously protected by patents, the core process patent of Honeywell (ZL200780007465.8) was declared invalid by the China National Intellectual Property Administration on September 2, 2021, opening a window for domestic enterprises to independently produce R1234yf and accelerating domestic substitution.

In the current market, leading R134a offers have been updated to 70,000 yuan/ton, with mainstream transaction prices in East China around 64,000 yuan/ton—far above the historical average and reaching a new high. In contrast, the estimated cost of R1234yf is around 80,000 yuan/ton, while mainstream transaction prices range from 180,000 to 200,000 yuan/ton, down 100,000–120,000 yuan/ton year-on-year. From a profit perspective, R134a’s current cost line is around 22,000 yuan/ton, with a profit range of around 41,000 yuan/ton; R1234yf’s current cost line is around 80,000 yuan/ton, with a profit range of around 80,000 yuan/ton. It is worth noting that although R1234yf’s profit has declined, its absolute value remains as high as 160,000 yuan/ton, twice that of R134a. This indicates that R1234yf still has substantial room for price reductions, while R134a’s profit has stabilized at a high level. This gives rise to two opposing concerns: (1) Will R134a see a premium to 80,000–100,000 yuan/ton during the phase-out? (2) Can R1234yf really fall to around 100,000 yuan/ton?

In response to these predictions and speculations, the following conclusions can be drawn:

R134a may momentarily rise to 80,000 yuan/ton in the short term (2026–2028), but reaching 100,000 yuan/ton remains difficult. Once it approaches 100,000 yuan/ton, it will create direct market competition with R1234yf. Before R134a is phased down, competition between the two will intensify, and from the supply side, it will be impossible to elevate a single primary product. As a result, R134a sales may face pressure. Supporting factors include: quotas tightening year by year, leading to a rigid reduction in supply; continued rigid demand from the aftermarket for the existing vehicle fleet (with new energy vehicle market penetration exceeding 60%, and NEVs consuming 1.5–2 times the refrigerant of traditional fuel vehicles); and quota concentration among leading plants, which strengthens their confidence in market support.

There is a high probability that R1234yf will fall to around 100,000 yuan/ton. Current cost forecasts for R1234yf are around 80,000 yuan/ton. After Honeywell’s core process patent was invalidated in 2021, the entry barrier for domestic enterprises was significantly lowered, and the patent premium is being stripped away. As major third-generation refrigerant producers such as Juhua and Dongyue transition and expand production, capacity will grow exponentially in 2027–2028, and the cost reduction resulting from economies of scale will be very significant.

Finally, the substitution path between the two is firm and irreversible. China’s vehicle parc is approximately 320 million units (2025), of which 90% still use R134a. New vehicle models for 2027–2029 have already begun early adoption, with fuel vehicles and new energy vehicles transitioning together. From January 1, 2030, newly applied M1 category vehicles must use R1234yf. The years 2026–2035 will be the peak decade for replacement, and annual demand for R1234yf is set to surge. It is worth being vigilant, however, that the European Chemicals Agency (ECHA) is advancing a PFAS restriction, and R1234yf could fall within the scope of PFAS regulation. If that proposal passes, R1234yf could be cut off from the EU market, forcing the industry to turn to other advantageous refrigerants such as R290 or R744. Jaguar Land Rover, for example, is already researching heat pump systems based on R290.