According to monitoring by the Business Society Commodity Market Analysis System, the domestic butadiene market in January 2026 exhibited a trend of rising first and then falling, with an overall significant increase. Prices reached recent highs, and the supply-demand game intensified. From January 1st to 29th, domestic butadiene market prices rose from 8,187.5 RMB/ton to a range of 10,562.5 RMB/ton, representing a significant price increase of 29.01% during the period. The market trend this month displayed distinct phased characteristics: surging to highs before encountering resistance and pulling back, yet overall remaining firmly at elevated levels. At the beginning of the month, supported by tight supply, rising international prices, and expectations of downstream pre-holiday stockpiling, the market initiated a strong upward surge. Producers demonstrated strong price support intentions, with offers successively raised, leading to a rapid price spike. Mid-month, bolstered by the simultaneous strength of downstream synthetic rubber futures and a heated spot trading atmosphere, prices continued to refresh highs. Spot resources were scarce, making low-priced supplies difficult to find. Towards the end of the month, as prices had risen substantially, downstream raw material cost pressures surged dramatically, profits remained under continuous pressure, and enthusiasm for entering the market for procurement noticeably declined. High-priced transactions encountered resistance, leading to a phased market correction. However, supported by the lack of significant easing on the supply side, the correction was limited in scope, and the market overall maintained high-level operations, with prices experiencing a substantial increase within the month.

Cost Side: As of the 28th, the settlement price for the March contract of U.S. WTI crude oil futures was reported at $63.21 per barrel. The settlement price for the April contract of Brent crude oil futures was reported at $67.37 per barrel. (Business Society Brent-WTI crude oil price comparison chart would be referenced here).

Supply Side: In January 2026, the domestic butadiene supply side continued its tight pattern. Plant maintenance and reduced import volumes were the core drivers, with limited spot circulation volume. Producers maintained a strong price support mentality, continuously raising offers in line with market conditions. Multiple domestic butadiene units entered maintenance cycles this month, and some producers experienced temporary shutdowns, limiting the release of effective industry capacity and contracting domestic supply. Simultaneously, available resources in the international market were limited, with supply tightening in major production regions like South Korea and Southeast Asia. Arrivals of deep-sea import cargoes decreased significantly, further reducing circulating spot resources in the domestic market and highlighting the tight supply-demand balance. Against this backdrop, offers from major domestic producers successively increased. Various sales companies of Sinopec, as well as companies like Satellite Chemical and Shenghong Refining, raised their listed/ex-factory prices multiple times. The overall pricing system shifted upwards, further driving market prices higher and becoming the core driver of the significant price increase this month.

• As of January 29th, the listed price for butadiene from various Sinopec sales companies was implemented at 10,600 RMB/ton, an increase of 2,300 RMB/ton compared to 8,300 RMB/ton on December 29th.
• Dongming Petrochemical's 50,000 tons/year butadiene unit operated normally, with 336 tons for external sales at a base price of 10,120 RMB/ton.
• Satellite Chemical's Lianyungang Petrochemical 90,000 tons/year butadiene unit operated normally, with a price increase of 200 RMB/ton, implemented at 10,400 RMB/ton.
• Yantai Wanhua Chemical's Phase II 200,000 tons/year butadiene unit operated normally, with an auction starting from 84 tons at a base price of 10,200 RMB/ton.