Multiple bullish factors propel aniline to a year-to-date high.

Overview: Recently, pure benzene has remained at high levels, providing solid support on the cost side. Downstream rigid demand has been following through smoothly, and with improving export pickup pace, buying interest in the aniline market was fairly active. Driven by both cost and supply-demand positives, the price center of aniline trended upward this week.

In East China, pure benzene spot prices extended their firm performance early in the week, supported by stronger crude oil on the cost side and low port inventories. However, as units previously under maintenance gradually resumed operation, domestic supply increased steadily, and with imported cargo arrivals recovering, the tight spot supply situation eased somewhat. By midweek, pure benzene holders became more willing to sell at concessions, limiting the upside for spot prices. On the demand side, downstream maintained procurement mostly on a rigid-need basis, showing caution in chasing higher prices, while end-user demand provided limited support. Downstream’s ability to absorb high-priced raw materials remains to be seen. Toward the end of the week, marginally weakening near-term supply-demand fundamentals pressured spot pure benzene in East China, while the far end stayed relatively firm under cost support, leading to a clear divergence in the market.

Under the joint effect of a tight supply-demand pattern and cost support, aniline prices hit a new high for the year. On the supply side, units at Dongying Caijin, Nanjing Chemical, and others that were previously under maintenance had not yet resumed, continuously reinforcing expectations of tight spot supply. The restart of the long-idle unit at Jilin Xuyang Cornell has notably changed the domestic supply-demand landscape, but its output is mainly sold to East China and overseas via ocean cargo, with no impact on the domestic truck-shipped spot market. On the demand side, despite some resistance from downstream to high-priced raw materials, most major downstream plants maintained normal operating rates. Steady release of domestic rigid demand, combined with continued drawdown from export orders, kept aniline plant inventories at low levels. On the cost side, the listed price of pure benzene was raised again, strengthening raw material support and further consolidating market confidence, while the aniline industry sustained a high level of profitability.

Looking at price transmission along the industrial chain, upstream raw materials and aniline both moved higher in price centers, while transmission downstream was clearly blocked—MDI prices came under pressure and weakened, and most additive grades remained in rangebound consolidation. At present, end users are adopting a wait-and-see attitude, and trading in the market is dominated by rigid demand.

Table 1: Aniline industry chain price comparison (Unit: RMB/ton)

Aniline spot market resources remained tight, with limited external sales from mainstream plants. Supply-side positives continued to build, and prices extended their firm upward trend during the week.

Looking ahead to the next period, on the supply side, units previously shut down are expected to resume operation, and both industry operating rates and spot supply are likely to rise. On the demand side, domestic consumption and export orders are expected to remain steady, with limited fluctuation in overall demand. On the cost side, pure benzene is expected to continue its high-level rangebound pattern. With the current aniline–pure benzene spread relatively wide and industry profits substantial, the aniline market is expected to maintain a firm trend in the coming period.