I. Key Focus Points (Highlighting cost changes, weekly supply/demand outlook, and current hot topics)
September 21: Reports emerged that the United States and Iran may resume negotiations, easing market concerns and causing international oil prices to decline. The NYMEX WTI crude oil futures contract for October delivery fell by USD 4.52/barrel to USD 95.78/barrel, a month-on-month decrease of 4.51%. The ICE Brent crude oil futures contract for November delivery dropped by USD 3.53/barrel to USD 100.34/barrel, a month-on-month decrease of 3.40%. The INE Shanghai Crude Oil futures contract for November 2026 delivery fell by CNY 23.6 to CNY 730.8/barrel, with the night session dropping further by CNY 16.5 to CNY 714.3/barrel.
Propylene Oxide (PO): On the previous trading day, the domestic PO market experienced a chaotic downward adjustment. Supply-side units remained largely stable; however, operating plants faced sluggish shipments during the downturn. Today, prices continued to retreat as negotiations proceeded. By midday, prices had fallen to recent lows. Subsequently, downstream buyers gradually increased their purchasing volumes after a period of observation, releasing some pre-holiday essential demand. This improved the shipment atmosphere within the market, moderately alleviating pressure on producers, while all parties await feedback from end-users.
| Product | Region | Sep 20 | Sep 21 | Change Rate |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dimethyl Carbonate (DMC) | Shandong | 5,650 | 5,550 | -1.77% |
| Dimethyl Carbonate (DMC) | East China | 5,700 | 5,650 | -0.88% |
| Dimethyl Carbonate (DMC) | South China | 5,900 | 5,900 | 0.00% |
| Notes: 1. DMC refers to industrial grade. 2. Unit: CNY/ton. 3. In the table above, RMB prices for Shandong are ex-factory acceptance bills; East China prices are delivered acceptance bills; South China prices are delivered T/T (Telegraphic Transfer). 4. Change rate is the week-over-week percentage change. |
III. Market Outlook
| Data Metric | Release Date | Previous Period | Expected Trend for Current Period |
|---|---|---|---|
| Weekly DMC Output | Thursday 17:00 PM | 57,600 tons | ↘ |
| Weekly PO Operating Rate | Thursday 17:00 PM | 67.35% | ↗ |
| Weekly DMC Operating Rate | Thursday 17:00 PM | 67.95% | ↘ |
| Weekly Profit (PO Transesterification Method) | Thursday 17:00 PM | 1,314 | ↓ |
| Notes: 1. ↑↓ indicates significant fluctuations, highlighting data dimensions with changes exceeding 3%. 2. ↗↘ indicates narrow-range fluctuations, highlighting data dimensions with changes within 0-3%. |
Forecast: On the previous trading day, domestic DMC market transactions were quiet, and the downtrend continued with negotiation centers moving lower. From the supply perspective, factory shipments were sluggish, leading to gradual inventory accumulation and increasing pressure on some enterprises to clear stock. As the holiday approaches, manufacturers' willingness to move goods has strengthened significantly, making actual order negotiations more flexible and increasing discount-for-volume operations. Demand remains weak, with downstream end-users showing only moderate enthusiasm for procurement. Most maintain just-in-time purchasing for essential needs, lacking intent for bulk replenishment. Market sentiment is heavily cautious, resulting in limited transaction follow-through. Chempricehub analysis suggests that under the dual impact of increased supply and insufficient demand follow-up, the short-term domestic DMC market will remain under pressure, with negotiation centers likely continuing to drift lower.
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