Market Review and Trend Outlook for Acrylonitrile in H1 2026

Introduction: In the first half of 2026, domestic acrylonitrile prices initially surged and then declined. The Middle East conflict triggered a rise in raw material costs and overseas supply shortages, which in turn stimulated a sharp increase in domestic market prices. Subsequently, as the external situation eased, prices also fell back. From January to June, the average price in the mainstream domestic acrylonitrile market was 9,770 yuan/ton, up 4.84% year-on-year.

I. Acrylonitrile Prices Surged and Then Fell in H1

Domestic acrylonitrile prices in the first half of 2026 can be divided into three main stages. In January-February, the market continued the sluggish trend from Q4 of the previous year, with spot prices fluctuating at a low level between 7,000-7,500 yuan/ton. At the end of February, the US-Iran war began, and acrylonitrile prices rapidly rose, reaching a peak of over 12,000 yuan/ton by mid-April. Thereafter, as the external situation eased, prices gradually fell back, but overall remained at a high level above 10,000 yuan/ton.

Table 1 Comparison of Domestic Acrylonitrile Market Prices (Jan-Jun 2026 vs 2025) (yuan/ton)

Source: chempricehub

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Specifically, in January-February, the acrylonitrile industry capacity utilization rate remained around 70% or slightly higher, with ample overall supply. However, demand remained persistently weak. The Spring Festival holiday also led to reduced consumption in some sectors, keeping acrylonitrile prices low overall. Starting at the end of February, the US-Iran war raised concerns about future supply. Driven by sentiment and rising raw material costs, the market began to rise. In April, reduced overseas supply significantly boosted export orders, further driving acrylonitrile prices higher. However, after the sharp price increase, high costs were not smoothly passed downstream. Insufficient end-user demand led to a gradually evident negative feedback effect. Operating rates in major downstream sectors, such as acrylic fiber and ABS, dropped significantly, resulting in increased local sales pressure. Suppliers actively cut prices to promote sales, and the market began to decline with fluctuations from mid-April. Nevertheless, export demand remained robust during this period, alleviating the surplus pressure caused by shrinking domestic demand and slowing the market decline. By the end of June, the ex-works price of acrylonitrile in the East China market was around 10,400 yuan/ton, up 3,000 yuan/ton from the beginning of the year, an increase of 40.3%.

II. Domestic Acrylonitrile Supply and Demand Both Increased in H1

In the first half of 2026, the domestic acrylonitrile market showed a phase of tight balance. Overall, both supply and demand increased, with export volume growing notably. The supply-demand contradiction in the acrylonitrile market was somewhat alleviated compared to 2025, and the supply-demand gap also narrowed.

Table 2 Acrylonitrile Product Supply-Demand Balance (Jan-Jun 2026 vs 2025) (10,000 tons)

Source: chempricehub

On the supply side, from January to June 2026, cumulative domestic acrylonitrile production reached 2.157 million tons, up 10.84% year-on-year. The average industry capacity utilization rate for H1 was estimated at 71.5%, up 2.5 percentage points year-on-year. By the end of June 2026, total domestic acrylonitrile capacity reached 5.551 million tons/year, an increase of 362,000 tons year-on-year. The only new capacity added in H1 was another 130,000-ton production line at Yulong Petrochemical.

Table 3 Acrylonitrile Supply Comparison (Jan-Jun 2026 vs 2025) (10,000 tons/year, 10,000 tons)

Source: chempricehub

In Q1, the acrylonitrile industry capacity utilization rate was relatively high, remaining around 75% or higher. In Q2, planned maintenance increased, including units at SP Chemicals (Sierbang), Korrun, Jilin Petrochemical, Fushun Petrochemical, and Zhejiang Petroleum & Chemical (ZPC). The industry capacity utilization rate fell to below 70%, dipping below 65% at the lowest point. This period also coincided with the phase of significant acrylonitrile price increases.

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On the demand side, total downstream consumption of acrylonitrile in H1 2026 was 1.888 million tons, up 10.8% year-on-year. Among the three major downstream sectors, especially ABS, capacity expansion slowed, and its operating rate gradually declined to below 60%. However, following the previous year's capacity expansion, domestic ABS production still showed a year-on-year increase. From January to June 2026, total ABS production was 3.481 million tons, an increase of 259,000 tons or 8% year-on-year. The acrylamide industry operated relatively steadily, with some capacity additions. The acrylic fiber industry saw operating rates continue to fluctuate dramatically. The average monthly consumption of acrylonitrile in H1 was 315,000 tons, an increase of 30,000 tons year-on-year.

III. Tightened Overseas Supply Stimulated Acrylonitrile Export Expansion in H1

Acrylonitrile export volume increased significantly in H1 2026. Cumulative exports from January to May reached 142,000 tons, up 6.8% year-on-year. Estimated exports for January-June were close to 200,000 tons, with a notable surge in May-June. Q2 saw continuous external turmoil. Unlike the planned shutdowns or rate reductions of domestic units, overseas supply was passively reduced due to the Middle East situation. Some major acrylonitrile production units in Northeast Asia reduced operating rates or shut down, leading to a supply shortage and triggering a concentrated release of Chinese exports. In H1 2026, Chinese acrylonitrile exports mainly flowed to South Korea, Thailand, Turkey, and India.

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Furthermore, the major downstream ABS sector remained a primary driver of consumption growth. From January to June 2026, domestic ABS production was estimated at 3.217 million tons, up 26.48% year-on-year and up 9.3% from Q4 2025. In H1, new capacities from companies like ZPC and Yulong Petrochemical were gradually commissioned. Monthly ABS production remained above 500,000 tons, compared to only around 400,000 tons per month in the same period of the previous year.

IV. New Capacity Release in H2 to Exacerbate Surplus Pressure

The external situation has now eased. International crude oil and upstream monomer prices like propylene have fallen from highs. Acrylonitrile production profit turned positive in the second half of June and became quite substantial. Profit recovery has impacted market sentiment. Additionally, as downstream demand enters the slack season in July-August, buyer resistance to high raw material prices has gradually intensified. Therefore, the pace of market decline accelerated from late June, with spot prices in the Shandong market falling below 10,000 yuan/ton by early July.

Furthermore, new acrylonitrile capacity will be released in H2, including ZPC's 660,000-ton unit and Zhongyang Petrochemical's 130,000-ton new unit, both planned for Q4 commissioning. At that time, total domestic acrylonitrile capacity will exceed 6 million tons/year. However, the pace of downstream capacity expansion has already slowed. The growth of domestic demand may be difficult to expand. Meanwhile, the overseas supply shortage has eased somewhat, and export volume is expected to decline sequentially. Nevertheless, H2 also sees major maintenance plans for units such as Anqing Petrochemical and Jihua Jieyang. Additionally, it is expected that as the overcapacity situation worsens in H2, acrylonitrile plants may continue to adopt proactive output reduction measures, keeping supply-side variables persistent.