Lead: Entering August, domestic acrylonitrile market prices opened sharply higher at 12,000–12,500 yuan/ton, up 600–700 yuan/ton from the end of July. Since the price uptick began in mid-July, the cumulative gain has reached 3,000 yuan/ton, an increase of 32.1%. Supply-side contraction was the direct factor fueling the market surge, and persistently low industry inventories, combined with rigid demand buyers passively restocking, further boosted the uptrend.
Acrylonitrile prices hit a near-five-year high, production margins greatly improved
As of August 5, ex-tank prices in the East China port acrylonitrile spot market had reached 12,300–12,400 yuan/ton, while the Shandong market also maintained ex-works pricing at 12,000 yuan/ton. Looking back, current prices have already exceeded the market highs seen in April amid the Middle East conflict and also surpassed the price surge in Q1 last year that was similarly triggered by unexpected supply contractions, reaching the highest level since early 2022. This rapid and substantial price rise was driven not only by persistently tight spot resources but also by reduced contract supply, with simultaneous supply cuts in both southern and northern regions, thus sharply boosting the market.
While acrylonitrile prices climbed quickly, upstream propylene prices showed a downward trend. In the Shandong market, propylene prices gradually dropped to around 8,000 yuan/ton or slightly below and fluctuated at that level. The spread between the two accordingly widened to 4,000 yuan/ton, significantly improving the theoretical production margin for acrylonitrile. Attractive profitability is expected to prompt shut-down plants to actively restart and recover. With supply increase expectations, the acrylonitrile market has currently stopped rising and entered consolidation.
Acrylonitrile industry inventory remains low
Before this round of price increases, overall domestic acrylonitrile industry inventory was already at a medium-to-low level. Both Keluer and Sinochem Quanzhou had restarted only recently, in late June. During the first half of July, weak demand and supply growth caused prices to quickly fall to near 9,000 yuan/ton. Over this period, inventories further declined to low levels, especially at acrylonitrile plants, where stocks were generally not high. Prices subsequently rebounded on cost-side support, but as market participants generally held a bearish outlook, they continued to maintain low inventory operations.
Unplanned shutdowns or load cuts lead to a phase of concentrated supply contraction
Starting in late July, Zhenhai Refining & Chemical shut down its methionine unit, a by-product derivative unit, for maintenance, and accordingly released a plan to reduce acrylonitrile output. It is understood that contract supply volumes for August were basically halved, prompting buyers to purchase from the external market to replenish stocks, which further pushed prices up. Subsequently, Lihuayi’s unit was shut down due to a malfunction, and shipments were simultaneously suspended for one week, causing spot resources in the region to tighten abruptly. Combined with the previous accumulation of low inventories, acrylonitrile became scarce in the market, further expanding the price gains.
In the first week of August, the shut-down acrylonitrile units had not yet resumed, and industry capacity utilization remained slightly below 70%. Although units such as Lihuayi, Tianchen Qixiang, and Sierbang are expected to resume operation, ongoing uncertainties are keeping market sentiment cautious, with holders maintaining firm and high offers.
Dynamics of selected domestic acrylonitrile units in 2026 (unit: 10,000 tons/year)
| Company | Capacity | Current operation | Unit status |
|---|---|---|---|
| Fushun Petrochemical | 9.2 | 0% | Shut down since March 1; restart planned in August |
| Jilin Petrochemical | 68.4 | 70% | No. 1 ACN unit and No. 3 ACN A line shut down for maintenance in late July |
| Anqing Petrochemical | 21 | 100% | Major turnaround planned in September–October |
| Sierbang | 104 | 25% | Reduced to two lines in June; reduced to one line in July; expected to ramp up around mid-August |
| Tianchen Qixiang | 13 | 0% | Shut down for maintenance in early July; expected to gradually resume in mid-August |
| Liaoning Jinfa | 26 | 100% | Plans to maintain one line for about 20–25 days starting August 12 |
| Lihuayi | 26 | 0% | Shut down for maintenance from July 28 to August 5 |
| Jihua (Jieyang) | 13 | 100% | Shut down for maintenance from July 29 to August 3 |
| Zhenhai Refining & Chemical | 40 | 80% | Planned to reduce to 50% in mid-August |
Source: Chempricehub
Since this round of acrylonitrile price surge was mainly driven by supply-side contraction, while demand has remained lackluster, the market is expected to move lower as supply gradually resumes. Still, supply-side fluctuations require continued attention, as uncertainties persist.
Looking further ahead, units such as Sierbang will gradually ramp up in mid-to-late August, and Rongsheng Petrochemical’s 660,000 tons/year of new capacity will start to come on stream in September. As a result, overall supply will increase significantly by then. Overall, in early August, industry inventories remain low, so acrylonitrile prices, despite correction expectations, may still hold at relatively high levels. In mid-to-late August, as supply recovers, the pace of price decline may accelerate.
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