This week, the startup of new units at Yulong Petrochemical increased supply in the northern market. Coupled with the approaching Spring Festival, spot buying interest weakened, leading to a decline in the acrylonitrile market after a previous rise. As of February 6, the mainstream ex-tank price at East China ports was 7,600 yuan/ton, down 100 yuan/ton from the previous week. In the Shandong market, the short-distance delivered price was 7,300 yuan/ton, down 400 yuan/ton from the previous week.

Supply Increase: During the week, the second 130,000-ton-per-year acrylonitrile unit at Shandong Yulong Petrochemical successfully commenced operations, boosting supply in the northern market. The total acrylonitrile production capacity base was adjusted to 5.579 million tons per year. Weekly production increased, while the operating rate slightly declined. According to statistics, as of February 5, the weekly capacity utilization rate of domestic acrylonitrile plants was 68.92%, down 0.1% from the previous period. Weekly production was approximately 80,400 tons, an increase of 1,800 tons from the previous period. Before the holiday, suppliers actively reduced prices to destock. Supply in the East China region remained limited, while downstream users continued to stock up in small quantities, leading to a further decline in enterprise inventories. As of February 5, total inventory stood at around 46,000 tons, down 4,000 tons from the previous week.

Demand Increase: This week, capacity utilization rates in major downstream industries of acrylonitrile varied. The ABS capacity utilization rate was 64.4%, down 1.7% from the previous week. The 400,000-ton-per-year ABS unit at Tianjin Dagu was affected by weather conditions, operating at 60% capacity from February 2 for 2–3 days. The acrylic fiber capacity utilization rate was 82.75%, up 16.75% from the previous week, as Jilin Petrochemical’s acrylic fiber unit resumed operations. The acrylamide capacity utilization rate was 52.39%, down 5.79% from the previous week, as plants in Henan and other regions halted operations for the holiday. Overall acrylonitrile demand increased.

Cost Increase: During the week, upstream propylene prices continued to rise, increasing the production cost of acrylonitrile. However, acrylonitrile prices remained relatively high, improving the production loss situation this week. According to statistics, as of February 5, the propylene market price in Shandong was 6,440 yuan/ton, up 40 yuan/ton from 6,400 yuan/ton at the end of the previous week. The average production cost of acrylonitrile was 8,600 yuan/ton, up 0.34% month-on-month. During the same period, the average production profit of acrylonitrile was -820 yuan/ton, an improvement of 271 yuan/ton month-on-month.

Outlook: Although supply in the East China region remains limited, the startup of Yulong Petrochemical’s new units, combined with the planned restart of Jihua (Jieyang)’s 130,000-ton acrylonitrile unit on February 10, will increase market supply. Additionally, as the Spring Festival approaches, spot market buying interest is expected to gradually weaken. In the short term, the market is projected to experience a narrow decline.