Introduction: During this period, the domestic acrylic acid market price exhibited a general downward trend, driven primarily by increased supply from plant restarts and insufficient demand due to shutdowns of some major downstream units. The market shows a clear pattern of rising supply and weakening demand, putting continued pressure on prices. As of May 25, the average price of acrylic acid in Shandong was 9,125 CNY/ton, down 0.82% from May 18. With weak downstream demand support and strong bearish sentiment, market shipments are divergent, and acrylic acid prices are expected to remain range-bound with a weak bias in the short term.
I. Supply Side: PDH units show two-way disturbance, acrylic supply slightly widens
[Figure 1: Shandong Acrylic Acid and PDH Operating Rate Trend Chart omitted]
[Data source: chempricehub information omitted]
Table 1: Shandong Regional PDH Unit Fluctuations Overview (10,000 tons/year, 10,000 tons)
| Province | Company | Unit | Capacity | Status | Remarks |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Shandong | Xintai Petrochemical | PDH | 30 | Shut down | |
| Shandong | Huifeng Petrochemical | PDH | 25 | Shut down | |
| Shandong | Yantai Wanhua | PDH | 75 | Normal operation | |
| Shandong | Wanhua Penglai | PDH | 90 | Shut down | Shut down on April 26, restart date TBD |
| Shandong | Qingdao Jinneng | PDH Phase I | 90 | Normal operation | |
| PDH Phase II | 90 | Normal operation | |||
| Shandong | Tianhong Chemical | PDH | 45 | Normal operation | |
| Shandong | Bin Hua New Materials | PDH | 60 | Normal operation | |
| Shandong | Lihuayi Weiyuan | PDH | 60 | Normal operation | |
| Shandong | Zhonghai Jingxi | PDH | 40 | Shut down | |
| Shandong | Zhenhua Oil | PDH | 75 | Normal operation |
Data source: chempricehub information
As shown in the figure, the overall PDH unit operating rate fluctuated minimally during the period. The regional supply pattern adjusted due to the two-way disturbance of Weiyuan Chemical's 600,000-ton/year PDH unit increasing its load and Dongying Petrochemical's gas separation unit shutting down. This period, the weekly acrylic acid production in Shandong was 218,000 tons, up 0.06% month-on-month, while the industry average operating rate dropped to 60.97%. Overall supply levels widened.
Looking ahead, there are no significant expected fluctuations in regional PDH units. As Weiyuan Chemical's unit ramps up to full load and Dongying Petrochemical's unit restarts production, acrylic acid output is expected to recover further. Acrylic acid weekly production in Shandong from May 25 to May 31 is forecast to increase to 223,800 tons, up 5,800 tons month-on-month. Additionally, the restart progress of Wanhua Penglai's 900,000-ton/year PDH unit is a key factor for future supply increments.
II. Demand Side: downstream operating rates generally decline, profit divergence restricts demand release
[Figure 2: Shandong Acrylic Acid and Downstream Derivatives Profit Trend omitted]
[Data source: chempricehub information omitted]
From the perspective of downstream profitability, the divergence in profits among acrylic acid derivatives has intensified. PP powder benefited from the weak downward trend of feedstock acrylic acid, showing a cost advantage and significant profit recovery. Its weekly average profit increased by 204 CNY/ton month-on-month to 133 CNY/ton. In contrast, products such as propylene oxide (PO) and octanol saw substantial profit shrinkage due to their own market weakness. PO's weekly average profit fell by 215 CNY/ton month-on-month, widening the loss to 1,699 CNY/ton. Octanol profits also declined, with a weekly average profit decrease of 449 CNY/ton to -529 CNY/ton. Overall, the downstream profit pattern shows significant divergence. Most categories are under loss pressure with insufficient production incentive, leading to low enthusiasm for raw material restocking, which persistently suppresses overall acrylic acid demand.
Table 2: Shandong Regional Partial Downstream Unit Fluctuations Overview (10,000 tons/year, 10,000 tons)
| Region | Company | Product | Capacity | Status | Theoretical Demand (5.18-5.24) | Short-term Demand Change (5.25-5.31) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Shandong | Hongxin Chemical | Acrylic Acid | 8 | Shut down 2026/2/26, restart TBD | -0.12 | -0.12 |
| Shandong | Shandong Minxiang | PO | 30 | Shut down 2026/2/13, restart TBD | -0.52 | -0.52 |
| Shandong | Dongming Dongfang | Octanol | 10 | Shut down 2026/5/20, restart TBD | -0.09 | -0.15 |
| Shandong | Zhonghai Jingxi | PO | 8 | Shut down 2026/5/17, restart TBD | -0.14 | -0.14 |
| Shandong | Shandong Jianlan | Octanol | 14 | Shut down 2026/5/22, ~10 days | -0.06 | -0.21 |
| Shandong | Shandong Jianlan | Octanol | 7 | Shut down 2026/5/24, ~15 days | -0.02 | -0.11 |
| Shandong | Jincheng Petrochemical | PO | 30 | Shut down 2023/5/24, restart TBD | -0.07 | -0.52 |
| Shandong | Keluer Chemical | Acrylonitrile | 26 | Shut down 2026/4/22, ~1-2 months | -0.57 | -0.57 |
| Shandong | Luxi Chemical | Octanol (Line 2) | 25 | Shut down 2026/5/18, ~1 month | -0.38 | -0.38 |
| Total | 158 | -1.97 | -2.72 |
Note: These are theoretical values calculated based on product output and unit consumption, for trend reference only.
Data source: chempricehub information
From the unit operation situation, fluctuations in major downstream production units in the Shandong region intensified during this period, particularly for octanol and propylene oxide (PO) units, with some units simultaneously cutting production. The weekly average operating rate for octanol dropped 4.47 percentage points month-on-month to 76.92%. The weekly average operating rate for PO fell 0.66 percentage points month-on-month to 64.83%, dragging down overall demand and suppressing buying interest. Looking ahead, the restart schedule for shut-down units is unclear, leaving limited room for demand recovery. It is expected that the theoretical demand from major regional downstream units will further decrease by 27,200 tons. However, the current relaxed profit margins for PP powder and acrylic acid provide some support to the market.
III. Shipment Side: enterprise shipments continue to weaken, market transaction atmosphere light
[Figure 3: Shandong Sample Enterprise Shipment and Price Trend omitted]
[Data source: chempricehub information omitted]
As shown in the figure, the weekly average shipment volume of sample enterprises showed a declining trend during the period, decreasing by 2,300 tons month-on-month to 19,400 tons. This further confirms the lackluster downstream demand. Looking at the short-term trend, enterprise shipments have not shown clear improvement signals. As of May 25, daily shipments had fallen to around 2,000 tons, indicating continuing inventory and sales pressure on the enterprise shipment side.
IV. Trend Outlook: mainly range-bound with weak bias, monitor costs and unit dynamics
(a) Short-term trend: insufficient upward momentum, prices consolidating weakly
In the short term, weakening cost support expectations combined with sluggish downstream demand recovery suggest that the acrylic acid market will continue to decline with volatility. The mainstream average price may seek support around the 8,900/9,000 CNY/ton level. Without significant positive catalysts, it could further test the 8,800 CNY/ton level. Key items to track are crude oil trends and the restart progress of PDH units such as Wanhua Penglai.
(b) Medium-to-long-term trend: cost-demand tug-of-war, range-bound oscillation
In the medium-to-long term, high cost pressures on enterprises are unlikely to ease soon, and there remains the possibility of economically driven shutdowns on the supply side. On the demand side, persistently weak downstream profitability will continue to act as a constraint. With a two-way tug-of-war between costs and demand, price adjustment space is limited. Combined with uncertainties from crude oil market disruptions, the long-term mainstream price of acrylic acid is likely to oscillate within the 8,800–9,200 CNY/ton range.
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