Lead: According to the latest data from the General Administration of Customs, China's sulfur imports in May 2026 reached 268,300 tonnes, down 9.20% month-on-month and plummeting 66.41% year-on-year. Cumulative imports from January to May totaled 2.1154 million tonnes, down 51.44% compared with the same period in 2025——a nearly halved cumulative import volume. This signals the sustained and profound contractionary impact of geopolitical tensions in the Middle East on China's import side.

Looking at monthly data trends, import volumes have shown significant year-on-year declines for four consecutive months. Although May's imports decreased slightly month-on-month, the year-on-year drop exceeded 60%. Moreover, April's import data had already set the second-lowest monthly record in two decades; without a doubt, May's data has broken that record again, falling just 31,800 tonnes short of the all-time monthly low. Currently, the tight domestic sulfur supply situation has not seen substantive relief. The reason the market remains range-bound and hesitant is not only because major downstream phosphate fertilizer companies have secured guaranteed supplies and are in their traditional off-season, but also due to the rational wait-and-see sentiment triggered by the signing of the US-Iran Memorandum of Understanding and the expectation of resumed navigation through the Strait of Hormuz.

[Image: Figure 1 omitted per instruction]

The cliff-like decline in import volumes can be summarized into three main factors:

1. The blockage of maritime shipping routes through the strait, causing severe delays in the delivery of Middle Eastern supplies.
2. Against the backdrop of global resource scarcity, sellers prefer to divert goods to higher-bidding markets such as Southeast Asia, South America, and Africa, making it difficult for China to find alternative supply sources to fill the import gap.
3. The first two factors have driven spot resource prices both globally and domestically to high levels, while risk-averse sentiment suppresses the import willingness of downstream companies and traders. As a result, China's sulfur import data presents a structural shift unlike any seen before.

[Image: Figure 2 omitted per instruction]

Note: The above chart includes data on mainstream Middle Eastern resources from source countries such as Saudi Arabia, UAE, Kuwait, and Qatar.

1) Significant fluctuations in the share of mainstream Middle Eastern resource imports

As shown in the chart above, extracting data from mainstream Middle Eastern source countries reveals a stark contrast between the January–May 2025 and January–May 2026 sulfur import data. Unsurprisingly, the 2025 data overwhelmingly dominates the corresponding 2026 figures, which is highly consistent with the overall monthly import comparison. Overall, from January to May 2025, China's imports of mainstream Middle Eastern resources accounted for more than 30% of its monthly import volumes in every month except May. In contrast, during January–May 2026, the share of imports from these mainstream Middle Eastern countries in China's monthly total imports showed clear volatility; most notably, in May 2026, imports from mainstream Middle Eastern resources accounted for only 4.60% of the month's total imports. This indirectly confirms the sustained impact of strait navigation restrictions, resulting in the loss of previously stable supply sources.

[Image: Figure 3 omitted per instruction]

2) Passive changes in the ranking of imports by source country

Looking at the overall import data for January–May, the ranking of trading partners has also shifted compared with the past. As shown in the chart above, the top five source countries are Oman, South Korea, Canada, Saudi Arabia, and Japan. The fact that Oman already showed similar performance in the 2025 import data does not surprise industry participants. However, the positions of the UAE, Qatar, and Kuwait are truly eye-opening. Additionally, the presence of South Korea, Japan, and Canada in the top five somewhat resembles the patterns seen in 2022 and 2023. If the import performance of 2022 and 2023 was the result of active choices by domestic industry participants in sourcing resources, this year's situation is a passive change driven by external circumstances.

Given the current uncertain trajectory of geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, China's future import data also remains subject to change.

1. Short term (June–July): Imports may recover, but year-on-year declines will remain significant.
As June approaches its end, based on vessel arrival schedules for the month obtained by chempricehub, the import data for June is unlikely to show an optimistic picture. There is a possibility of setting a new annual low, or even threatening the lowest monthly record in two decades. For July, navigation through the Strait of Hormuz may see intermittent resumption; it is rumored that some vessel resources have already passed through the strait and are being diverted to various destinations. However, among those vessels, only a few are bound for China. Even if more delayed shipments manage to pass through smoothly, compared with the July 2025 import volume of 1.0936 million tonnes, the year-on-year decline could still exceed 55%. In such a scenario, the low operating level of port inventories may be difficult to reverse.

2. Medium term (Q3): Imports may pick up, but the pace of recovery is likely to be slow.
If the strait gradually returns to normal navigation, the global resource shortage across demand markets will certainly ease. However, during this process, Chinese buyers will inevitably face price competition from other regional markets. Meanwhile, relatively high market prices will continue to dampen domestic industry participants' interest in importing. If Indonesia releases new demand again, and Russia remains unable to resume exports, the overall bargaining dynamics in the global sulfur market will not be favorable for the recovery of China's sulfur imports.