How will US export growth and China's tariffs reshape the global propane trade?

How will US export growth and China's tariffs reshape the global propane trade?
US propane exports hit a record 1.8 million barrels per day in 2025, up 3% year-on-year, driven by shale gas output and expanded export terminals. China remains the largest single buyer, but its imports from the US fell 29% in late 2025 after Beijing imposed retaliatory tariffs. This pushed US volumes toward India, Vietnam, Singapore, and Indonesia, which together absorbed an additional 110,000 bpd. China's overall propane import dependence stands at 84%, with over half of its 29.3 million tonnes of 2024 imports sourced from the US. Any sustained tariff disruption raises feedstock costs for China's PDH sector, which now exceeds 22 million tonnes of annual propylene capacity. The trade flow rebalancing is not just a bilateral issue—it is reshaping freight routes, storage economics, and price benchmarks across Asia.