The "Proposal of the Central Committee of the Communist Party of China on Formulating the 15th Five-Year Plan for National Economic and Social Development" states: "Promote the peaking of coal and oil consumption." Since the 18th National Congress of the Communist Party of China, the Central Committee has placed addressing climate change in a more prominent position in national governance, making the major strategic decision to achieve carbon peak and carbon neutrality. Efforts have been accelerated to adjust the structure of key sectors such as energy, and significant progress has been made in promoting the comprehensive green transformation of economic and social development. The period of the "15th Five-Year Plan" marks the final stage of achieving carbon peak. As the mainstay of energy supply, fossil fuels such as coal and oil remain key areas for advancing carbon peak efforts. During this period, coal and oil consumption are showing a trend toward peaking. It is necessary to align with this trend to ensure the smooth achievement of peaking coal and oil consumption, laying a stronger foundation for further adjustments in the energy structure and the advancement of energy conservation and carbon reduction. Based on comprehensive analysis and considering the rapid development of new energy in China, the proportion of fossil energy consumption is expected to continuously decline. It is projected that coal and oil consumption will peak successively during the "15th Five-Year Plan" period, with fossil energy consumption accounting for less than 75% by 2030. Specifically, coal consumption is expected to peak around 2027 and enter a plateau phase. Coal consumption in the power and chemical industries will continue to grow, while consumption in steel, building materials, and residential sectors will remain stable or decline. In China, the consumption of refined oil products with "fuel" attributes has already peaked, while the consumption of chemical-use oil with "raw material" attributes will maintain a certain level of growth. Oil consumption is expected to peak around 2026.

Moving forward, it is essential to adhere to the principle of "establishing before dismantling," strengthen the construction of the energy production, supply, storage, and sales system, promote the safe, reliable, and orderly replacement of fossil energy with non-fossil energy, continuously optimize the energy structure, and accelerate the construction of a new energy system. A smooth and orderly transition should be achieved under the premise of ensuring energy security, promoting the high-quality development of the fossil energy industry, and driving the comprehensive green transformation of economic and social development.

First, enhance the clean and efficient utilization of fossil energy. Firmly control fossil energy consumption and deepen the clean and efficient utilization of coal. During the "15th Five-Year Plan" period, under the premise of ensuring energy security and supply, gradually reduce coal consumption, implement total coal consumption control in key regions, and actively and orderly promote the replacement of scattered coal. Accelerate the "three-in-one transformation" of existing coal-fired power units for energy conservation, carbon reduction, flexibility, and heating. Reasonably plan and construct regulatory and supportive coal-fired power to ensure the security of the power system, providing strong support for the energy security transition. Increase efforts in the exploration, development, and production of oil and gas resources, and accelerate the integrated development of oil and gas exploration and development with new energy.

Second, vigorously develop non-fossil energy. Accelerate the construction of clean energy bases such as wind and solar power in the northwest, hydropower in the southwest, offshore wind power, and coastal nuclear power. Actively develop distributed photovoltaic and decentralized wind power, and develop new energy sources such as bio-natural gas, non-grain biomass cellulose fuel ethanol, biodiesel, sustainable aviation fuel, green methanol (ammonia), geothermal energy, and marine energy based on local conditions. Promote the full-chain development of hydrogen energy, including production, storage, transportation, and utilization. Coordinate hydropower development with ecological protection and advance the integrated development of hydropower, wind, and solar energy. Actively, safely, and orderly develop nuclear power, maintaining a reasonable layout and steady construction pace. Promote the diversified replacement of end-use energy with green electricity, green hydrogen, green ammonia, and green methanol. By 2030, the proportion of non-fossil energy consumption should increase to around 25%.

Third, strengthen guidance on capacity regulation. The peaking of coal and oil consumption may lead to structural issues in the coal and refining industries, exacerbating "internal competition," stranded investments, and phenomena such as "increased production and revenue without increased profits." This may also increase uncertainties in stable energy production and supply and create temporary pressures on local taxation and employment. It is necessary to strengthen guidance on capacity regulation and continuously optimize the structure and layout. Coordinate efforts to "reduce oil, increase chemicals, and improve quality" in the petroleum industry, and balance the addition and withdrawal of coal production capacity. Accelerate the construction of key large-scale coal bases and continuously increase the proportion of advanced production capacity. Accelerate the interconnection of oil and gas pipelines to expand the coverage and operational efficiency of the "national integrated network." Improve the monitoring and early warning mechanism for coal and refining capacity to guide enterprises in timely adjusting investments and production operations. Encourage leading enterprises to conduct mergers and reorganizations through market-based means and promote the orderly withdrawal of inefficient production capacity in coal and refining.