Entering May, the domestic acrylonitrile market continues to exhibit a pattern of cost-driven support coupled with supply-demand tussles. This week, the ex-tank spot price at East China ports has risen by 100 CNY/ton from pre-holiday levels to 11,000 CNY/ton, with cost factors serving as the primary driver. Notably, the price of main feedstock propylene remains elevated in the range of 9,600-9,800 CNY/ton. Calculations indicate that the theoretical production feedstock cost for acrylonitrile has already reached 11,500 CNY/ton, meaning the loss margin for acrylonitrile as a single product is still expanding. Under cost pressure, acrylonitrile plants have pushed up their overall quotations entering May, but gains remain constrained due to persistently weak fundamentals.

Currently, the capacity utilization rate of the domestic acrylonitrile industry remains at a low level of around 65%. However, as some units restart from maintenance—such as the 200,000-ton unit at CNOOC Fudao, which has resumed operation; Zhejiang Petrochemical, which is also set to restart two units; and Jilin Petrochemical, which will ramp up from current 50% load to normal operation by mid-May—the industry capacity utilization rate is expected to gradually rise to above 70%. On the demand side, the load rate of the acrylic fiber sector has dropped to a historic low of less than 20%. Although Jilin Chemical Fiber, a major producer, is expected to gradually resume operations this month, both Hangzhou Bay and Ningbo Zhongxin remain shut for maintenance. Meanwhile, the operating rate of the ABS sector has also fallen below 60% due to poor profitability. Calculations show that in May, domestic acrylonitrile supply will increase while demand continues to shrink. Despite support from export demand, the overall situation remains one of oversupply, and the domestic supply-demand gap is set to widen significantly this month.

The external environment remains unstable, but from a fundamental standpoint, the acrylonitrile industry chain is generally weak. The upstream propylene market is expected to shift from a previous tight balance to a looser pattern in May, with prices also anticipated to decline to some extent. This could weaken cost-side support for acrylonitrile. Combined with the further deterioration of supply-demand dynamics mentioned above, upward momentum for the acrylonitrile market in the remainder of May faces significant resistance, and a phase of retracement cannot be ruled out. However, based on current information for June, some plants—such as Sierbang, Liaoning Kingfa, and several Shandong facilities—still plan to cut loads or shut down, which will reduce supply again. Meanwhile, the downstream acrylic fiber sector is expected to gradually resume operations. This suggests that the supply-demand balance could improve in June, potentially offering another opportunity for market recovery.