This week, the domestic industrial-grade propylene glycol market experienced a fluctuating pattern of “falling first, then rising, with the rally meeting resistance.” At the end of last week, the market continued its earlier weak downward trend. Restarted units brought additional spot supply, sellers lowered offer prices, and the transaction focus continued to shift downward. At the beginning of this week, after prices fell to a stage low, trading centered on negotiation and the market stopped declining and began to recover. In addition, changing overseas conditions triggered a concentrated release of export orders, and domestic downstream buyers carried out restocking at low levels. Midweek, supported by both rising feedstock costs and the export boost, sellers repeatedly pushed offer prices upward, speculative sentiment quickly heated up, and several operating plants raised ex-works prices for a second time, with some even suspending offers and refusing to sell. As upstream feedstock surged to the 10,000 yuan threshold, domestic downstream acceptance of high-cost raw materials declined, terminal orders pulled back, and market wait-and-see sentiment became pronounced.
Table 1 Theoretical weekly profit changes in the propylene glycol industrial chain (yuan/ton)
| Product | Current period | Previous period | Change | Change rate | Next-period trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Propylene glycol | 1197.86 | 921.04 | 276.82 | 30.06% | ↑ |
| Propylene oxide | -899.32 | -860.39 | -38.93 | -4.52% | ↑ |
| Unsaturated resin | -206.00 | -394.00 | 188.00 | 47.72% | ↓ |
| Elastomer polyether | 345.98 | 421.98 | -76.00 | -18.01% | ↓ |
Source: Chempricehub
During this period, profit movements across the propylene glycol industrial chain were mixed. Downstream unsaturated resin profits remained negative, while elastomer polyether polyol profits declined within a range.
After the rapid price surge, market contradictions gradually surfaced. As propylene glycol prices climbed quickly, downstream resistance became more evident. Terminal orders did not follow the sharp rise in raw material prices, and end customers showed limited acceptance of high-priced finished products. Willingness to chase higher prices largely faded, and purchases returned to essential requirements. Wait-and-see sentiment in the market intensified markedly, speculative heat cooled, resistance to high-price transactions increased, large deals became noticeably fewer, and the upward momentum began to weaken.
On the demand side this week, operating rates in the UPR downstream and end-use sectors remained persistently low, showing clear resistance to continuously climbing feedstock prices. End users mostly adopted a buy-on-dips strategy. Resin enterprises continued to face multiple difficulties, including frequent raw material price swings, strong cost support but scarce orders. On the polyether side, the outdoor elastomer construction projects that had supported the market earlier, such as plastic track projects, mostly ended or stopped construction; essential demand from track orders was basically exhausted, and terminal essential demand shrank further. Meanwhile, the downstream fabricated products industry was still in the tail end of the traditional off-season, with slow finished goods shipment and sluggish inventory digestion. Production enthusiasm remained low, and overall trading sentiment was depressed. On the export front, foreign trade orders continued to come in this week and effectively absorbed domestic spot supply, providing strong consumption support. However, ocean freight rates fluctuated frequently, and cargo holders stayed cautious, preferring to take a wait-and-see stance on future raw material trends.
Looking ahead, the market will continue to revolve around two key variables: detailed plant operation fluctuations and costs. In the propylene oxide feedstock market, the rally is expected to slow and stabilize, with some possible downside afterward. Market participants generally hold optimistic expectations for the traditional peak season, yet as feedstock prices remain elevated, caution is growing. The propylene glycol market may enter a wait-and-see, stalemated phase, shifting to high-level consolidation and bargaining. There is also a possibility that prices will follow feedstocks downward.
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