August MMA Market Review and September Outlook
In the first half of August, the market transitioned into a firm phase following price gains; although some regional markets saw slight pullbacks in the latter half of the month, prices rebounded again near month-end as actual supply recovery fell short of expectations and costs pushed higher. As of August 31, the reference negotiation range in the East China market stood at 11,800–11,900 CNY/ton, with some slightly higher offers also heard — up 450 CNY/ton, or 3.95%, from before the August 26 uptick. The MMA market is expected to maintain its upward momentum in September, with short-term supply–demand dynamics remaining the dominant theme.
I. Supply: Delayed unit restarts left spot tightness not fully resolved
In August, some MMA units made temporary shutdowns, several units postponed their restarts, and some sea-borne cargo arrivals were delayed due to weather conditions. The resulting supply tightness supported an upward shift in market negotiation levels, with the East China August average price rising 10.68% to 11,402 CNY/ton.
For September, cost-side and supply-side changes are expected to remain ongoing influences on market prices. Specifically, some units that were scheduled to restart in late August have postponed their restarts to early September, while early-month contract replenishment has come in below expectations, leaving a spot supply gap in the market. For mid-to-late September, assuming units resume operations as expected, supply is tentatively projected to improve, although supply-side uncertainties cannot be completely ruled out.
II. Cost side: Short-term support remains relatively strong
Raw material prices rose sharply in late August, pushing costs higher. Although costs pulled back somewhat during the period, they remained at elevated levels. Under cost pressure, sellers showed a clear intention to hold prices firm. As noted earlier, the month-end rebound in MMA prices was supported not only by supply factors but also by the cost side.
As of the time of writing, the production cost of MMA via the C4 route remained higher than that of the ACH route. In August, average costs for the ACH route and the C4 route increased by 629 CNY/ton and 651 CNY/ton, respectively, from July, representing gains of 5.97% and 5.22%.
III. Demand: Essential needs plus pre-holiday stockpiling expectations
Downstream procurement in September is likely to remain driven by essential needs. In the near term, the spot market holds a supply gap in early September, and buyers have purchasing plans in place. Additionally, with two holidays approaching and transport restrictions expected, downstream players are anticipated to replenish inventories ahead of time, providing continued support on the demand side.
IV. Market perspectives
(1) Monitor the restart progress of MMA units such as Jiangsu Sailboat and Liaoning Jinfu.
(2) Track downstream purchasing pace and pre-holiday stockpiling status.
(3) Further watch cost-side fluctuations.
(4) Other variables, such as unscheduled unit shutdowns and delayed cargo arrivals by sea.
In the near term, supply in early September has not yet fully recovered, with reduced contract volumes and a persistent market gap, leaving room for further price increases. In the medium-to-long term, although supply is expected to improve in mid-to-late September, unplanned changes in unit operations or shipping schedules cannot be ruled out, meaning both costs and supply carry variables of uncertainty. On the demand side, no major fluctuations in downstream unit operating rates have been heard so far; essential demand remains intact, and moderate pre-holiday stocking demand exists due to transport constraints. In summary, the short-term MMA market is expected to maintain a firm tone. For the medium-to-long term, the market direction will depend on changes in supply and demand, and the September average price is set to continue its upward trend.
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