Spot orders test higher gains, market participants cautiously observe (20260904-0910)

1. Market Focus This Week

1. September long-term contract pricing in the downstream refrigerant industry: Sinochem Taicang 15,200 yuan/mt, Shangyu 15,100 yuan/mt; Juhua 15,000-15,050 yuan/mt; Meilan 15,050 yuan/mt; Dongyue 15,120 yuan/mt.

2. The industry’s overall capacity utilization rate and output are expected to remain stable this week.

3. Fluorinated refrigerants maintained firm quotations, with transactions concluded through negotiation.

2. Market Analysis This Week

Domestic Anhydrous Hydrogen Fluoride Market Weekly Price Table

This week, the domestic anhydrous hydrogen fluoride market saw its center move upward, with limited trading. On the cost side, the fluorspar market has been generally stable recently, mainly fulfilling contract orders, with increases mostly reflecting the implementation of earlier high prices. The sulfuric acid market remained loose, with insufficient demand follow-up, and further declines are expected before the holiday. Overall cost-side fluctuations were limited, with gains and losses offsetting each other. On the supply side, conditions were regionally tight overall, especially in the northern market, where upward momentum has been strong recently, with frequent high-priced spot transactions boosting sentiment. However, except for a few regions, most regions reported that business was mainly contract deliveries. Downstream demand follow-up was generally weak. As the weather turned cooler, rigid demand consumption for refrigerants weakened, and terminal production schedules continued to shrink, continuously transmitting bearish pressure to the feedstock side. Lithium hexafluorophosphate maintained high-load operation, mainly to fulfill agreed orders, but spot transactions during the week were limited, and overall demand declined. As of press time, the mainstream delivered price for domestic anhydrous hydrogen fluoride in the East China market for September is referenced at 15,050-15,200 yuan/mt, while the spot market delivered price is referenced at 15,500-16,000 yuan/mt.

3. Raw Material Market Analysis:

Fluorspar Weekly Market Analysis:

This week, the domestic 97% fluorspar fine powder market fluctuated within a range, with a strong wait-and-see sentiment. Recently, inquiry and trading sentiment in the market has declined from earlier levels. Most downstream buyers have completed periodic purchasing, and market participants are mainly fulfilling contract orders. Market sentiment is mixed, with differing views on the outlook. Some participants believe that the sharp rise in the center of AHF spot orders provides support for fluorspar participants, and that market supply has contracted year-on-year, making procurement more difficult than in previous years. Others hold a more relaxed overall attitude, mainly following the market. Imported supply continues to enter the market, downstream fluorspar powder inventories vary, and some restocking has occurred. At the same time, demand is expected to decline significantly later, and sustained support is insufficient. Downstream operating rates are generally low, constrained by plant maintenance, and absorption capacity is limited. Current domestic spot delivered prices by region are referenced as follows: Inner Mongolia 3,300-3,400 yuan/mt; Zhejiang 3,500-3,600 yuan/mt; Jiangxi and Fujian 3,700-3,800 yuan/mt; Shandong 3,550-3,600 yuan/mt; Northwest China 3,400-3,500 yuan/mt; Henan and Anhui 3,400-3,500 yuan/mt. As of press time, the mainstream delivered price of domestic fluorspar wet powder is referenced at 3,300-3,800 yuan/mt.

Sulfuric Acid:

This period, the average price in the domestic sulfuric acid market was 1,540 yuan/mt. This week, the domestic sulfuric acid market generally maintained a weak trend. Downstream industries showed low willingness to accept goods, and a strong wait-and-see atmosphere prevailed. Influenced by the “buy on rises, not on falls” mentality, downstream buyers only replenished on a rigid-demand basis, and overall trading sentiment was light. On the supply side, most major acid producers operated steadily, regional supply was sufficient, and some enterprises accumulated inventories, increasing shipment pressure. This week, regional markets generally declined, with acid prices in Central China, East China, South China, and Northwest China falling again by 50-110 yuan/mt. In the short term, downstream demand shows no sign of recovery, the domestic sulfuric acid market may continue to face pressure, and transaction centers in various regions may still move lower. As of now, the delivered-to-plant price of 98% smelting acid in Hubei is around 1,300-1,500 yuan/mt, down 7.14%/6.25% from last week; the delivered-to-plant price of 98% smelting acid in Yunnan is 1,400-1,450 yuan/mt, down 0.71%/1.36% from last week.

R22:

This period, domestic and export quotations from major East China producers of fluorinated refrigerant R22 remained firm, and the overall market continued its high-level sideways pattern. As of press time, quotations from major East China producers are referenced at 24,000 yuan/mt (coordinated domestic and export quotations); mainstream quotations in the East China market are referenced at 23,000-24,000 yuan/mt, and the mainstream transaction center for fluorinated refrigerant R22 (feedstock grade) is referenced at 12,000 yuan/mt. As of press time, in the domestic trade market for fluorinated refrigerant R22 (ODS), bulk demand is weak, with channel transactions mainly in small packaging. To avoid inventory buildup, the industry operating rate for fluorinated refrigerant R22 (ODS + feedstock grade) was weakly stable versus the previous period, currently stable at 71% (flat versus the previous period). Affected by highly seasonally sensitive feedback in the terminal market, purchasing demand in South China and East China shrank significantly. Panic sentiment in the channel predominates, and participants continue to wait for the official quotation signals from major producers to materialize. In the short term, major plants’ quotations remain firm, operating loads are low and declining, and the market is mainly waiting for downstream digestion. Chempricehub expects that mainstream fluorinated refrigerant producers in the East China market will keep firm quotations, and the mainstream quotation for fluorinated refrigerant R22 (ODS) from major producers is referenced at 24,000 yuan/mt.

R32:

This period, mainstream producers of fluorinated refrigerant R32 kept firm quotations, controlling volume to support prices. As of press time, quotations from major East China producers are referenced at 65,500 yuan/mt (coordinated domestic and export quotations); mainstream quotations in the East China market are referenced at 63,500-64,500 yuan/mt. As of press time, affected by seasonality, industry demand has turned weaker, and producers have slowed production to control the base of spot supply. During the export “window period” in the export market, the supply side is actively exporting to move volume and ensure quota completion rates. According to statistics, the R32 industry operating rate remained stable week-on-week this week; at present, balancing limited demand space is a much better choice than high operating rates and inventory buildup. Market sources indicate that supported by firm high-level official quotations for fluorinated refrigerants R32 and R125, blended fluorinated refrigerant R410A continues to trade in a firm high-level range. Recently, small-package R410A shipments have been relatively active, to some extent prompting channel supply to adjust prices. Chempricehub expects the ex-works quotation for fluorinated refrigerant R32 to be referenced at 65,500 yuan/mt (coordinated domestic and export quotations), and the ex-works quotation for fluorinated refrigerant R410A to be referenced at 59,500 yuan/mt.

5. Next Week Market Forecast

Based on the above analysis, spot orders in the market have once again touched the annual high. Although market sentiment has been driven, participants remain relatively rational, and actual transactions are mainly spot orders. The market will watch the resumption of operations at major northern plants and demand performance. Chempricehub expects that the domestic anhydrous hydrogen fluoride market will fluctuate within a range next week.