Lead: The US-Iran negotiations continue, keeping crude oil prices elevated and ethylene tar costs high. Meanwhile, shrinking demand has led to a continuous decline in ethylene tar prices. As of May 1, 2026, the mainstream price of ethylene tar in East China is 3,400 yuan/ton, and in North China, it is 3,425 yuan/ton.

I. Crude Oil Market Fluctuations

Reviewing the Brent crude oil price trend from 2020 to 2026, the global crude oil market has gradually shifted from the supply-demand imbalance under the impact of the pandemic to supply risk pricing dominated by geopolitical situations. Each price fluctuation has been highly correlated with key events. Since 2026, the Middle East geopolitical conflict has escalated again, the Iran-Israel conflict continues to ferment, coupled with blocked shipping through the Strait of Hormuz, forcing multiple oil-producing countries to cut production. Supply risks pushed Brent crude oil prices to a four-year high of $118.35/barrel on March 31.

Table 1: Crude Oil Price Summary (Unit: 10,000 barrels/day)

| Type | Name | Current Period Avg. | Previous Period Avg. | Change | Change % | Unit |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| Crude Oil Futures | WTI | 98.69 | 90.65 | 8.04 | 8.87% | USD/barrel |
| Crude Oil Futures | Brent | 109.58 | 97.13 | 12.45 | 12.82% | USD/barrel |
| Crude Oil Futures | Oman | 104.39 | 98.39 | 6.00 | 6.10% | USD/barrel |
| Crude Oil Futures | SC Main Contract | 651.74 | 622.68 | 29.06 | 4.67% | yuan/barrel |
| International Prices | Daqing | 105.23 | 95.24 | 9.99 | 10.49% | USD/barrel |
| | Duri | 102.43 | 97.78 | 4.65 | 4.76% | USD/barrel |
| | Minas | 103.38 | 98.51 | 4.87 | 4.94% | USD/barrel |
| | Tapis | 114.19 | 105.93 | 8.26 | 7.80% | USD/barrel |
| | Cinta | 100.03 | 95.85 | 4.18 | 4.36% | USD/barrel |
| | Shengli | 101.29 | 94.79 | 6.50 | 6.86% | USD/barrel |
| | Brent Dtd | 115.37 | 108.53 | 6.84 | 6.30% | USD/barrel |
| | Dubai | 106.25 | 99.85 | 6.40 | 6.41% | USD/barrel |
| | Oman | 106.15 | 99.64 | 6.51 | 6.53% | USD/barrel |

On the supply side, although the US and Iran have extended the ceasefire period, the prospects for negotiations remain unclear, navigation through the Strait of Hormuz continues to be blocked, and crude oil output from Persian Gulf coastal oil-producing countries remains low. The overall supply is assessed as declining. On the demand side, refinery runs in major Asian consuming countries have fallen to low levels, actual crude oil demand is weakening, and overall consumption is assessed as declining. The supply-demand balance shows supply falling short of demand, maintaining a relatively large supply gap. Looking ahead to the next period, the prospects for US-Iran negotiations remain uncertain, and the situation in the Strait of Hormuz is unlikely to improve soon. The tight supply situation is expected to persist in the short term.

II. Ethylene Tar Market Reaction

Ethylene tar prices across various regions in China generally declined, with persistently weakening overall demand dragging down the market. Market participants held bearish sentiments and insisted on purchasing only based on rigid demand, leading to sluggish trading. Coupled with the synchronous decline in prices of high-temperature coal tar, a homogeneous substitute, bearish factors were concentrated, further pressuring the ethylene tar market downward.

III. Homogeneous Product Market Reaction

For the homogeneous product high-temperature coal tar, the market continued its downward trend before the holiday. Although auction prices fell by a small margin, actual offline transaction prices included lower levels. Taking Shandong as an example, although the auction price settled at 4,150 yuan/ton, sales at this price were slow. Downstream buyers intended to purchase at 4,050 yuan/ton. Supported by carbon black companies' price firming, the decline in high-temperature coal tar was relatively slow this month. However, prices of most deep-processing products showed a downward trend, especially industrial naphthalene and coal tar pitch, which saw significant declines. There is still room for further decline in the coal tar pitch market. With the continuous decline of downstream product prices, the profit margins of deep-processing enterprises are being continuously compressed. Additionally, due to sluggish earlier sales, some coking plants have increased inventory pressure, and bearish factors in the market still dominate.

Before the May Day holiday, carbon black market prices weakened. Taking Shandong as an example, April carbon black prices fell from 7,600 yuan/ton to 7,300 yuan/ton, a decline of 3.95%, with surrounding areas also showing a downward trend. Due to persistently high prices earlier, downstream resistance was evident. Furthermore, some companies continued to firm up raw material tender prices, leading to significant negotiation pressure in the region. The negotiations between upstream and downstream were characterized by a stalemate, with slow progress in new downstream procurement orders and limited transaction volumes, as most participants awaited new signals after the holiday.

In April, domestic 180CST wholesale prices for bunker fuel fluctuated, first rising and then falling, but overall showed an upward trend. International crude oil remained high and volatile in April. The supply-demand relationship for blending feedstock such as domestic low-sulfur residual oil/asphalt and shale oil weakened. Prices rose first and then declined during the month. Although the average raw material prices increased slightly month-on-month, the cost-side support for bunker heavy fuel oil was insufficient. Overall, the monthly average wholesale price of 180CST increased.

The mainstream variety of anode materials is graphite-based anodes. The prices of petroleum coke, needle coke, and coating asphalt used in their production rose initially and then stabilized in April, remaining firm. The mainstream price of medium-grade synthetic graphite anodes was 28,500 yuan/ton, remaining stable throughout 2026, with only a few small individual orders seeing slight increases. The anode market price struggled to follow the timely price increases of raw materials. Downstream battery factories continue to suppress anode material prices as the main theme.

IV. Summary

Cost side: Currently, navigation through the Strait of Hormuz remains continuously blocked, leading to a significant contraction in Middle Eastern crude oil supply. Coupled with the uncertain prospects of US-Iran negotiations, supply risks persist. International oil prices are expected to have room for upside in the near term. Going forward, close attention should be paid to the navigation status of the Strait, the extent of supply contraction in the Middle East, processing rates at Asian refineries, and global demand performance. Simultaneously, continuous monitoring of developments in the US-Iran situation is necessary, as geopolitical factors will continue to dominate short-term oil price trends.

Related markets: After the holiday, the coal tar market remains in a downward channel. However, the magnitude of the decline will depend on market sentiment. If downstream factories still hold a firming stance, the decline will be relatively slow; otherwise, the market could enter a phase of rapid and significant decline. Overall, the average price in the Shandong region is expected to fluctuate within the range of 3,800-4,100 yuan/ton. New procurement orders from carbon black downstream are mostly characterized by price suppression. Downstream buyers have not yet accepted the previous high prices. Therefore, after the holiday, negotiation battles are expected to intensify. Manufacturers have high inventory levels and may be inclined to offer concessions to stimulate shipments. New orders after the holiday are expected to continue their downward consolidation. With crude oil prices expected to rise, there remains some cost support. However, downstream demand after the holiday is expected to remain weak. The wholesale price of 180CST is expected to rise, but the upside potential is limited, with the weekly average price increasing slightly. After the holiday, the price of low-sulfur petroleum coke, a key raw material for anode material production, is expected to increase by 30 yuan/ton, a rise of 0.62%. This will further increase production costs for anode materials. Anode material production will utilize high-cost raw materials, significantly compressing production profits. Supported by these costs, the market price of anode materials is expected to have an upward potential. In May, 70% of market participants believe that anode prices will remain stable for the most part, mainly considering that under the oversupply situation in the anode material market, battery factories hold significant bargaining power and continue to suppress anode market prices. Therefore, pushing up anode market prices faces significant difficulty.

Recently, the ethylene tar market has been continuously weakening, dominated by the "buy on rising, not on falling" mentality. Downstream participants are highly cautious, leading to poor overall circulation. According to statistics from chempricehub, major units such as Hainan Refining & Chemical, Sinopec Yangzi Petrochemical, Sinopec-SK (Wuhan) Petrochemical, and Shenghong Petrochemical are all scheduled for maintenance in May. This will lead to a phased reduction in ethylene tar supply, making inventory pressure manageable in May and providing some support for prices. International crude oil prices rose significantly from $70/barrel to $90-$100/barrel, substantially increasing the production cost of ethylene tar. However, downstream industries like carbon black and coating asphalt lack sufficient demand growth to absorb the cost pressure. As of early May, the mainstream ethylene tar price in East China was 3,400 yuan/ton, compared to approximately 3,300 yuan/ton at the end of February, an increase of only 100 yuan/ton. In summary, after the holiday, ethylene tar prices will be supported by costs and maintenance-related supply reductions, but weak demand and cautious sentiment suggest the market will mainly fluctuate within a narrow range. Attention still needs to be paid to crude oil price trends, the pace of downstream resumption of operations, and price correlations with coal tar. If crude oil stabilizes at high levels and demand picks up, ethylene tar prices may see a slight recovery.