Introduction:
The current ethylene tar market exhibits typical characteristics of "multiple constraints resonating." Both bullish and bearish forces are engaged in intense competition at key price points, leaving the market in a stalemate where upward and downward movements are equally difficult. This situation is not driven by a single factor but results from the interplay of macro policies, industrial cycles, market sentiment, and trading conditions.
1. Ethylene Tar Market
[Figure 1: Domestic Ethylene Tar Price Trend]
Data source: chempricehub
2. Related Markets
[Figure 2: Domestic High-Temperature Coal Tar Price Trend]
Data source: chempricehub
Since last week, sentiment in the domestic high-temperature coal tar market has improved noticeably. As the end of the month approaches, coinciding with the new pricing cycle for carbon black, and following the decline in coal tar prices, terminal factories have shown weaker purchasing enthusiasm. To stimulate product shipment, the overall market inclination to push prices higher has strengthened. Anhui Linhuan's auction price first stopped falling and rose slightly, followed by increases in auction prices across major production areas to varying degrees, with the Shanxi region experiencing a relatively large rise. Due to earlier safety rectifications in Shanxi's coal mines, a significant amount of coking coal production capacity was shut down. Currently, while production has resumed, output levels have not recovered fully. Supplies of high-quality low-sulfur primary coking coal and fat coal are tight, driving up local coal prices continuously, pushing up the cost center for coking plants' furnace feed. Consequently, under cost pressure, coking plants' operating rates have declined, reducing the supply of high-temperature coal tar. As a result, the market once again shows a situation of tight supply and rising prices this week.
On the supply side, the tight coal resource situation continues to ease, and raw material constraints for coking plants are expected to be lifted. Combined with good profit recovery earlier, the industry's operating rate resilience is sufficient, maintaining supply at a high level. There is an expectation of increased supply for high-temperature coal tar. On the demand side, downstream operations remain at high levels recently, supporting strong demand for coal tar. On the sentiment side, downstream profit expectations are pessimistic, leading to increased resistance to coal tar price increases and a slowdown in purchasing pace. Overall, it is expected that the upward momentum of the high-temperature coal tar market will slow down in the next period, with potential downward pressure.
[Figure 3: Domestic Carbon Black Price Trend]
Data source: chempricehub
Recently, new order quotations for carbon black have been continuously raised. The sustained price increase in the raw material coal tar market has boosted market sentiment. In particular, the rise in coal tar prices in Shanxi has supported local carbon black new order prices to follow suit. Some large factories have raised their ex-factory prices, and surrounding small factories have followed suit with higher quotes. However, downstream tire companies have mostly fulfilled their earlier orders and show limited acceptance of high-priced raw materials. Only a few rubber product companies have placed small supplementary orders, resulting in generally average transaction volumes. After the continuous rise in coal tar prices recently, downstream resistance has intensified. Further upside for raw materials is limited, and cost support is weakening. Although carbon black manufacturers intend to support prices, actual transaction price increases face significant resistance.
Although carbon black companies have raised their offer prices backed by high cost support, downstream rubber and tire factories are under profitability pressure, and actual procurement follow-through is weak. Overall, the sustained upward push for carbon black prices faces considerable resistance, and the market may mainly maintain a wait-and-see stance with price support.
[Figure 4: Domestic Bunker Fuel Wholesale Price Trends by Region (10,000 tons)]
Data source: chempricehub
[Figure 5: National Weekly Wholesale Supply Trend of Marine Heavy Fuel Oil (10,000 tons)]
Data source: chempricehub
Overall, in the first half of the year, the national domestic-sample wholesale supply of marine heavy fuel oil was approximately 1.59 million tons, down 9.9% year-on-year. On a monthly basis in 2026, most periods showed weaker performance compared to 2025. Meanwhile, in terms of price, the average wholesale price of 180cst in the first half of the year was 5,296 yuan/ton, an increase of 223 yuan/ton compared to the same period last year, a rise of 4.39%. The overall trend showed an initial increase followed by a decline. In June, low-sulfur residue oil/asphalt prices rose month-on-month due to tightened supply, providing a floor for the blending cost of marine heavy fuel oil. Simultaneously, tax inspections have increased the difficulty for wholesalers in many regions to sell, leading to a reluctance to sell, and the market shows a supply shortage, providing support for the 180CST price.
On the supply side, there are still gaps in the supply of low-sulfur residue oil/asphalt from some major domestic refineries. However, insufficient cost-side support drags down wholesalers' blending costs. Currently, regional resource supply is unstable, and marine heavy fuel oil products remain tight. This situation is unlikely to ease in the short term, with mixed bullish and bearish factors. On the demand side, July marks the traditional off-season for domestic inland and coastal shipping markets. Terminal ship owners' port bunkering demand remains on a rigid demand basis, with concentrated replenishment demand being scarce. Market transactions are mostly small, scattered orders. Downstream marine fuel traders and bunkering operators are highly risk-averse towards the future, with insufficient replenishment enthusiasm. Overall market demand volume is limited, and the 180cst price is expected to continue its weak trend.
[Figure 6: Domestic Artificial Graphite Anode Price Trend]
Data source: chempricehub
On July 1, GB/T 46957-2025 "General Safety Specification for Grid-Connected Energy Storage Systems for Electric Power Energy Storage Systems" and GB38031-2025 "Safety Requirements for Traction Batteries for Electric Vehicles" were officially implemented. The National Energy Administration's Order No. 41 of 2026 also came into effect simultaneously, including the grid-related performance of electrochemical energy storage stations as a criterion for "major accident hazards" for the first time. The 500+Ah large battery cell precisely meets this upgrade requirement, offering longer cycle life and higher safety margins. In July, the proportion of energy storage production scheduling exceeded 42%. However, the growth logic is no longer based on piling up small battery cells but on the structural substitution of small and medium-sized battery cells by large ones. In the power battery field, the bottom-line mandatory standard involves more than just minor textual adjustments between old and new versions. It comprehensively raises the safety red line from four dimensions: thermal runaway protection, mechanical safety, electrical durability, and applicable categories. This is a comprehensive upgrade of demand standards.
Coating pitch's main downstream application is anode materials, and short-term downstream demand is favorable. Needle coke prices are being pushed up, keeping artificial graphite anode costs high. Anode demand continues to improve. Stricter battery regulations are prompting structural adjustments in products, with large battery cells and fast-charging products gaining more market growth. Demand for anode materials will continue to increase. Downstream customers are starting pre-stocking for the peak season, leading to positive anode orders.
3. Supply
Sinopec Yangzi Petrochemical entered maintenance on May 5, 2026; Sinopec SK (Wuhan) Petrochemical entered maintenance on June 4, 2026, expected to last 52 days, reducing merchantable volume. Hainan Petrochemical entered maintenance on June 6, and Shenghong Petrochemical on July 1, with external sales further declining. Gulei Petrochemical's unit has not yet started up and has no external sales. Maoming Petrochemical and Jieyang Petrochemical switched to internal use in June, and Guangzhou Petrochemical also has plans for internal use in the future, reducing external supply.
5. Summary
Considering the current market fundamentals, spot supply of ethylene tar remains tight in the short term. Meanwhile, the upward trend in high-temperature coal tar provides comparative price support, leaving very limited room for a market decline. Key focuses will be the impact of tax inspections and the price trend of coal tar next week. From a medium-to-long-term perspective, multiple domestic ethylene cracking units are scheduled to resume production intensively in August, leading to a significant increase in merchantable product supply. After the supply release, the market may transition into a phase of shock consolidation. If downstream demand in sectors such as carbon black and anode materials fails to improve simultaneously, prices may still face downward pressure under a loose supply-demand balance.
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