Ethylene Tar Market Remains Stable at Mainstream Levels (September 11–17, 2026)

1. Key Market Focus This Week

① Disruption to Saudi crude oil pipeline transport and the continued stalemate in US-Iran relations have intensified supply risks.

② The long-distance Saudi crude oil pipeline remains unrepaired, while Houthi forces continue to exert pressure on Saudi Arabia. There are no signs of easing in US-Iran relations.

③ Multiple parties are attempting to ease tensions in the Middle East, but the Federal Reserve's interest rate hike has strengthened the US dollar, putting pressure on the oil market.

2. Weekly Market Analysis

Current ethylene tar market status: Driven strongly by the surge in high-temperature coal tar prices, the ethylene tar market remained at a high level throughout the week. As of September 17, mainstream ex-factory prices in North China and East China had risen to 5,250 CNY/ton. The core driver was that last week’s high-temperature coal tar auctions continuously set new historical records, directly boosting sellers' confidence in maintaining high prices for ethylene tar. Combined with the bottom support provided by the fluctuation of international crude oil at high levels, the cost foundation for ethylene tar remains solid, and producers maintain a firm stance on pricing. Consequently, prices overall held steady at high levels this week.

3. Statistical Table of Ethylene Tar and Related Markets

Data Source: Chempricehub Information

4. Next Week Market Forecast

Cost Forecast:

According to Chempricehub data monitoring, as of the 17th, Sinopec's naphtha ex-factory price for September 2026 is expected to be adjusted to 6,533 CNY/ton, an increase of 553 CNY/ton from the previous month.

International oil prices are expected to see a slight decline next week, with WTI likely ranging between $99-105/barrel and Brent between $102-108/barrel. The core logic behind the oil price trend forecast is: The US has again hinted at a potential easing of US-Iran tensions, and mediators continue to push for peace talks, thereby reducing supply risks. However, caution is warranted regarding inconsistent US statements, as uncertainty persists in the Middle East. Key focus areas include:

1. Supply side: US-Iran relations remain deadlocked; shipping through the Strait of Hormuz is obstructed; Houthi forces control the Bab el-Mandeb Strait and continue harassing Saudi Arabia, keeping crude oil supply risks alive.
2. Demand side: Traffic volume through both the Strait of Hormuz and the Bab el-Mandeb Strait has declined; Asian refineries plan to reduce operating rates; OPEC and IEA have lowered global crude oil demand growth forecasts; moreover, the peak season for US fuel consumption has ended, causing seasonal positive factors to fade.
3. Geopolitical aspect: US President Trump plans to meet with leaders from multiple Gulf countries during the UN General Assembly in New York next Tuesday to discuss follow-up arrangements for the US-Iran conflict, signaling an effort to conclude the dispute. Armed attacks still occur in the Middle East, but multiple countries have expressed commitment to easing regional tensions, indicating strong volatility in geopolitical maneuvering.
4. Financial attributes: The Federal Reserve raised interest rates by 25 basis points, bringing the benchmark rate to 3.75%-4.00%, marking the first rate hike since July 2023. The strengthening US Dollar Index has temporarily suppressed upward movements in oil prices.

Downstream Carbon Black Forecast: Looking ahead, the raw material coal tar market shows a downward trend in new orders, releasing negative signals on the cost front. Additionally, downstream tire enterprises have maintenance plans scheduled, leading to simultaneous weakening of demand. Meanwhile, the carbon black market at high prices is experiencing a phenomenon where quotes exist but transactions do not. Overall, new orders in the carbon black market may follow the downward trend.

High-Temperature Coal Tar Forecast: The high-temperature coal tar market is expected to remain stable but weaken slightly in the next period. Key focus areas include:

1. Supply side: As coking enterprise profits recover, many local coking plants have resumed production slightly. However, the industry's overall operating rate remains at a low level seen in recent years, so the supply of high-temperature coal tar is unlikely to increase significantly in the short term.
2. Demand side: Operating rates in deep processing and carbon black sectors have decreased due to increasing cost pressures. Furthermore, autumn maintenance shutdowns for deep processing are approaching, causing downstream factories' procurement sentiment for coal tar to slow down markedly.
3. Sentiment side: Fear of high prices is prevalent in the market, with participants holding relatively pessimistic expectations for future prospects.
4. Inventory side: Coking enterprises currently face no inventory pressure.

Fuel Oil Market Forecast: International crude oil still has room for a slight decline in the next period. Raw material supply for marine fuel oil is tight, and prices are expected to fluctuate at high levels, with cost support remaining relatively solid. Wholesale prices for 180 CST are likely to stay high, and the national weekly average price may rise slightly compared to the previous week. It is estimated that the mainstream wholesale transaction price for 180 CST ex-warehouse nationally will range from 6,700-7,000 CNY/ton; the mainstream bunker delivery transaction price for National VI Grade 0# diesel will range from 9,000-9,300 CNY/ton; and the mainstream bunker delivery transaction price for light marine fuel oil will range from 8,900-9,200 CNY/ton.

Next Period Ethylene Tar Market Forecast: Against the backdrop of high-level stagnation in the high-temperature coal tar market coexisting with negative feedback risks from carbon black, the ethylene tar market is expected to maintain a pattern of consolidation at high levels in the short term, with cooling reception sentiment from downstream buyers. Although the high-temperature coal tar market is temporarily stable, cumulative gains since mid-August have been substantial, pushing prices to historic highs. While profits for deep processing enterprises remain acceptable, losses for carbon black enterprises have deepened, and production reduction expectations are being realized, gradually intensifying negative feedback risks. If downstream carbon black production cuts fall short of expectations, the high-temperature coal tar market will remain firm, providing solid cost support for ethylene tar and keeping prices high. Conversely, if significant production cuts occur downstream, coal tar prices will face correction pressure after the National Day holiday, causing ethylene tar to come under similar pressure. Looking ahead, new orders for raw material coal tar show a downward trend, releasing negative cost signals. Coupled with reduced demand due to maintenance plans at downstream tire enterprises, the carbon black market at high prices already exhibits "quotes without transactions," suggesting new orders may follow the downtrend, leaving ethylene tar lacking further upward momentum. However, cost support from international crude oil persists, providing a floor for ethylene tar. Overall, it is judged that the short-term ethylene tar market will likely present a pattern of oscillating at high levels, caught in a dilemma between upside and downside pressures.

For more detailed weekly market analysis, please refer to the Chempricehub Information Ethylene Tar Weekly Report.