Double Holiday Approaches; LNG Market Likely to Remain Stable with a Wait-and-See Attitude (Sep 17, 2026)

1. Today’s Summary

1. The Dagang Oilfield Gas Storage Cluster has cumulatively injected over 2 billion cubic meters of gas during this injection cycle, achieving 90% of the annual plan and marking an 8% year-on-year increase—a historic high. Currently, domestic gas storage facilities are nearing the end of their injection phase, with injection volumes gradually tapering off. It is projected that they will transition to the production phase in mid-to-late October to ensure winter peak shaving supply for the North China region.

2. CNOOC completed a bonded LNG bunkering operation for the vessel "Hai Jie Ma'anshan" at the Chuanshan Port Area of Ningbo-Zhoushan Port. This marks the first LNG bunkering service for an LNG-powered vessel on the China-Europe Arctic Express route. The ship will navigate the Northeast Passage via the Arctic route to Europe. Using LNG fuel meets environmental requirements for polar shipping and significantly reduces black carbon and sulfur oxide emissions. The successful completion of this bunkering operation further consolidates Ningbo-Zhoushan Port's position as China's third-largest LNG bunkering hub and supports the development of green shipping infrastructure along the "Ice Silk Road."

Table 1: Domestic LNG Price Summary (Unit: RMB/ton)

Market Prices: Today's national LNG ex-plant price stood at 6,456 RMB/ton, up 31 RMB/ton from the previous working day. The price of imported resources was 6,229 RMB/ton, up 39 RMB/ton from the previous working day.

Domestic Supply: Northwest LNG prices rose slightly. Production at Northwest LNG plants remained stable, with overall inventory levels under control. Demand for vehicle-use LNG in the Northwest was robust, and transactions at higher prices were acceptable; however, traders have become more cautious in procurement, leading to a market focused on maintaining stable prices.

Imported Sea Gas: Driven by rising terminal prices, LNG prices in the East China market increased across the board today. While supply from receiving terminals remains stable, downstream demand is expected to continue expanding. Qidong and Linyi China Resources maintained replenishment efforts, creating strong demand for Binhai resources. Additionally, some local city gas companies and shipyards in Jiangsu began external procurement. Shipments from the Binhai receiving terminal surged to approximately 240 trucks. This intensified downstream demand exacerbated the shortage of transport vehicles, pushing Jiangsu LNG freight rates above 1 RMB/ton/kilometer, which further drove up market prices.

3. Production Dynamics

Imports: On September 16, LNG receiving terminal truck loading volume reached 34,734 tons, a week-on-week increase of 9.61%. Shipments from the North China region totaled 7,938 tons (+8.00% w/w); South China region shipments were 10,710 tons (+8.28% w/w); and East China region shipments were 15,309 tons (+12.85% w/w).

Domestic Supply: No plant startups or shutdowns were reported today.

Profit Margins: Taking Inner Mongolia as an example, the average theoretical profit for sampled factories in the region was 853 RMB/ton, remaining steady compared to the previous day.

4. Price Forecast

Domestic Supply: Domestic ex-plant prices are expected to remain generally stable in the near term, with minor adjustments. As prices rise and the upcoming Mid-Autumn Festival and National Day holidays approach, upstream suppliers face more urgent needs to reduce low inventories, leading to more cautious pricing strategies. A potential short-term trend reversal is anticipated.

Imported Sea Gas: With peripheral domestic resource prices continuing to rise, the sales scope for lower-priced sea gas within the region has expanded. End-users are purchasing according to immediate needs. Therefore, receiving terminal ex-plant prices are expected to remain stable and watchful in the coming period.

5. Related Products Status

Gasoline and Diesel Market: As of press time, the mainstream transaction price for 92# gasoline in Shandong was 10,049 RMB/ton, down 58 RMB/ton, with a mainstream range of 10,003–10,061 RMB/ton. The mainstream transaction price for 0# diesel was 8,944 RMB/ton, down 46 RMB/ton, with a mainstream range of 8,813–8,944 RMB/ton. Although Shandong refineries performed reasonably well in sales yesterday—with gasoline sell-through rates at 90% and diesel sell-through rates exceeding 110%—overnight crude oil price declines dampened market sentiment. Consequently, refineries lowered prices to stimulate sales today, while midstream and downstream participants adopted a cautious wait-and-see approach, resulting in flat trading activity. Overall, gasoline and diesel prices in the Shandong market declined today.

LPG Market: In South China, mainstream prices for domestic LPG ranged from 7,500 to 7,750 RMB/ton, while imported LPG traded between 7,800 and 8,000 RMB/ton. Major refineries in South China adjusted prices downward today, aiming to incentivize sales through margin concessions. Sales of lower-priced resources were acceptable, but transactions at higher price points remained sluggish. However, general tightness in dock-side supply, combined with cost support, led to stable trading at docks. The market outlook for tomorrow suggests stabilization, with potential price hikes at docks depending on international crude oil trends.

Table 2: Domestic LNG Data Overview (Unit: 10k tons, RMB/ton)