Since mid-May, both supply and demand for domestic acrylonitrile have shown growth, with various upstream and downstream units restarting after maintenance. However, the supply increase has been relatively more pronounced, leading to a widening supply-demand gap in the industry and further weakening of the fundamentals. As a result, market prices have narrowed slightly. The limited price decline is still supported by cost pressures, but given that the supply-demand relationship is expected to remain weak in the long term, the market is likely to continue its slow downward trajectory in the near term.

Starting in mid-May, acrylonitrile maintenance units gradually resumed operations. For instance, the 684,000-ton-per-year acrylonitrile unit at Jilin Petrochemical increased its operating rate from around 50% to 90% or above, Zhejiang Petrochemical's 520,000-ton unit rose from 50% to approximately 75%, and Shanghai SECCO also plans to restore its operating rate to 50%. As a result, the industry's capacity utilization rate has now risen from below 65% to nearly 75%. For June, aside from Si'erbang's confirmed reduction of one 260,000-ton unit, there are no other planned load reductions or shutdowns. Overall, acrylonitrile supply is expected to increase further in June, with domestic production estimated at 360,000–370,000 tons, higher than the 360,000 tons produced in May.

On the demand side, the operating rate of the acrylic fiber industry has been volatile. Previously, due to the full shutdown of Jilin Chemical Fiber's units, the industry's operating rate dropped to less than 30%. Recently, it has gradually recovered to over 40%, with a further increase expected in June. However, the operating rates of the ABS and acrylamide industries are expected to see limited improvement, as ABS margins remain poor, while acrylamide production and end-consumption are about to enter a seasonal downturn. Therefore, apart from a notable increase in acrylic fiber consumption, other sectors are unlikely to see significant demand growth. Moreover, since acrylic fiber's share of total consumption has declined in recent years, its phased demand recovery provides only limited support to the acrylonitrile market, given the simultaneous supply increase.

In addition, although there is still a supply gap overseas, with both units of Korea East-West Petrochemical in Northeast Asia under maintenance and Formosa Plastics' units operating at low loads, regional demand has also weakened. As a result, the atmosphere for foreign inquiries has cooled. While export arbitrage opportunities still exist, the margin has narrowed significantly.

Based on comprehensive estimates, the supply-demand gap in the acrylonitrile industry is likely to widen again in June and July. Although cost pressures will continue to limit the downside for prices, the downward trend is difficult to reverse. However, some acrylonitrile producers are already experiencing losses, especially those in the north, where prices are relatively low and some raw materials need to be purchased externally. Therefore, the bearish expectations based on market news may lead to unplanned fluctuations on the supply side. The potential for supply-side uncertainties will also continue to restrict market maneuvering. It is expected that the acrylonitrile market will maintain a slow downward pace, and attention should remain on the interlinked changes in costs and supply.