Since early March, driven by tensions in the Middle East, the supply of key upstream materials for acrylonitrile—such as crude oil, propane, and propylene—has tightened, while overall raw material prices have risen sharply. Under cost pressures and concerns over production cuts, acrylonitrile suppliers have been forced to raise offers, and spot market prices have surged rapidly amid fears of further increases. Simultaneously, some Northeast Asian plants have halted or reduced operations, tightening overseas supply. Soaring international prices have further spurred domestic market speculation. By early April, domestic acrylonitrile prices had climbed above ¥12,000 per ton, reaching their highest level since early 2022. Since this upward trend began, prices have risen by ¥4,700 per ton, an increase of 63.1%.

However, persistently high acrylonitrile prices have triggered resistance from downstream users, making cost transmission along the industrial chain difficult. Although downstream sectors have followed the upward trend, their price increases have been modest, leading to significantly compressed profits across industries. In particular, acrylic fiber and ABS sectors have once again recorded negative theoretical margins. As a result, plants in these two major downstream areas have reduced operating rates, weakening overall domestic demand. From a supply-demand perspective, the domestic supply-demand gap widened in March. Nevertheless, strong export demand stimulated by high international prices has kept domestic acrylonitrile industry inventories on a downward trend, allowing suppliers to maintain sales without pressure and providing room for further price hikes.

Starting late March, the 200,000-ton acrylonitrile unit at CNOOC Fudao entered a scheduled maintenance shutdown, and a Zhejiang Petrochemical unit also halted operations unexpectedly. Additionally, maintenance plans are in place for some production lines at Jilin Petrochemical and Kerui Chemical. It is expected that the domestic acrylonitrile industry’s capacity utilization rate will drop below 70% by mid-April, gradually realizing supply reductions. At the same time, however, operating rates in the acrylic fiber and ABS sectors are projected to decline, indicating weaker demand ahead. Still, exports in April and May are expected to remain relatively strong, likely keeping the supply-demand gap at a low level and supporting high acrylonitrile prices. Further attention should be paid to the price trend of raw material propylene.