Lead: Some DOP units under maintenance have resumed production, leading to a slight increase in output. However, as prices remain at high levels, the DOP market has been operating in a loss-making zone recently, which strongly suppresses any increase in capacity utilization.
The Chempricehub Information Butanol-Octanol, Phthalic Anhydride, and Plasticizers Market Seminar is scheduled for September 10-11, 2026, in Guangzhou, Guangdong. New and old friends are welcome to gather in Guangzhou to discuss new industry developments. Conference hotline: 0533-7026072, Wu Li.
Blocked Cost Transmission Makes DOP High Prices Unsustainable
Since the beginning of the month, the DOP market has been supported by concentrated buying every week, with spot goods in East China experiencing queues for delivery. This pushed prices to a high of 9,650 yuan/ton, the highest level since June. However, as prices continued to rise, end-users' costs increased rapidly, and the high costs were difficult to pass down the chain. Buying weakened in the latter part of the month, with end-users mostly digesting earlier orders and adopting a cautious attitude toward new orders. Near the end of the month, profit-taking and short-selling both emerged, pulling DOP prices down from their highs. As of August 28, the Jiangsu market price was 9,500 yuan/ton delivered, up 9.20% from the beginning of the month and down 1.55% from the peak.
DOP Profitability Hurt, Capacity Utilization Once at Low Levels
In mid-July, both octanol and phthalic anhydride prices rose. In North China, the phthalic anhydride (oxidation process) price climbed to a high of 9,000 yuan/ton, while octanol rose to 7,900 yuan/ton, widening cost increases. In Shandong, the maximum loss reached 356 yuan/ton. When phthalic anhydride prices corrected to 8,700 yuan/ton, DOP cost pressure eased somewhat in mid-August, briefly hovering near the cost line. But as phthalic anhydride returned to the "9,000" range and octanol rose to 8,650 yuan/ton, DOP profit fell back to a loss of 188 yuan/ton. The average profit loss in August reached 146 yuan/ton.
Table: Changes in DOP profit and capacity utilization (yuan/ton)
| Date | Profit | Capacity utilization |
|---|---|---|
| August 3 | -245 | 55% |
| August 10 | -304 | 47% |
| August 17 | -86 | 50% |
| August 24 | -146 | 59% |
With both raw material costs at high levels, the DOP market failed to pass through high prices adequately, and price increases at times lagged behind cost increases. For most of August, the market operated in a loss-making zone, with earnings damaged—the lowest profit level of the year. As a result, under significant cost pressure, several plants reduced output to avoid high costs, and DOP capacity utilization once ran at low levels. Only after profitability recovered somewhat did capacity utilization gradually pick up.
Outlook
On the raw material front, octanol capacity utilization is expected to rise, with supply increasing slightly, mainly in North China, while East China spot supply remains tight. The market tightness will ease somewhat. At the beginning of the month, contract volumes will be prioritized, and spot buying enthusiasm may be moderate, meaning prices could face downward pressure. For phthalic anhydride, the gap between production and sales is expected to widen. There are expectations of new unit start-ups, so market prices may fall. In addition, industrial naphthalene prices may also decline, weakening cost support for naphthalene-based phthalic anhydride.
On the supply-demand front, higher DOP capacity utilization will boost output in the short term. With fewer new orders, the regional tight delivery pattern will gradually ease. End-users currently have some inventory to consume, and buying sentiment is somewhat subdued. The next wave of concentrated procurement will depend on new market signals; until then, transactions will mostly be limited to rigid demand.
At present, DOP market demand support is insufficient, and mainstream traders are inclined to sell, putting prices under pressure. However, over the long term, there are still maintenance plans in the octanol market, and changes in crude oil and futures markets will have some impact on downstream buying sentiment. Currently, the DOP market remains in a loss-making zone, and cost pressure may limit room for price adjustments.
Comments
0