Introduction: Entering late April, the domestic acrylic emulsion market has encountered a phase shift. Due to a decline in core raw material prices, a continuously weakening cost market, and sluggish downstream demand, market prices for acrylic emulsions have shown a volatile downward trend, with subdued trading activity. As of April 24, domestic low-solid-content styrene-acrylic emulsion was quoted at RMB 6800-7600/mt, and pure acrylic emulsion at RMB 7800-8200/mt, down 0.98% and 0.82% from the previous week, respectively.

Cost: Multiple Factors Converge to Weaken Previously Firm Cost Support

According to data from Chempricehub, the price of the raw material butyl acrylate has recently continued its downward trend, with a faster decline in the price center. Taking the main East China market as an example, this week's trading range is RMB 10,600-11,500/mt, down RMB 600/mt from the previous week, a decrease of 5.05%. The price center for MMA has also declined. As of the 24th, the negotiated reference price in the East China market was around RMB 13,200-13,400/mt; in the Shandong region, it was around RMB 13,100-13,300/mt; and in the South China region, it was around RMB 13,500-14,400/mt, representing week-on-week decreases of 4.40%, 3.79%, and 4.77%, respectively. Domestic styrene prices rebounded slightly after a decline. High-end spot transactions in Jiangsu reached RMB 10,270/mt, while low-end transactions were at RMB 9,850/mt, a spread of RMB 420/mt.

Monomer prices like butyl acrylate have pulled back from their highs. Although the current price center remains at high levels, most market participants hold a bearish outlook for the future. Data from Chempricehub indicates that while raw material prices still provide a rigid cost floor at high levels, they can no longer drive emulsion prices higher as they did previously.

Market Conditions: Weakening Cost Support Leads to Volatile Price Declines for Emulsions

Recently, the domestic acrylic emulsion market has entered a volatile downward phase. On the supply side, operating rates at acrylic emulsion production enterprises remain at low-to-medium levels, with no significant surplus in the spot market. On the demand side, end-users in downstream sectors like coatings and adhesives show resistance to the current high prices, making purchases only for immediate, small-lot needs with low stockpile intentions. The market volume for specialty emulsions is limited and cannot offset the overall weak demand.

Facing the dual pressure of falling costs and weak demand, most production enterprises have been forced to follow the market downward with price cuts. As of April 24, domestic low-solid-content styrene-acrylic emulsion was quoted at RMB 6800-7600/mt, and pure acrylic emulsion at RMB 7800-8200/mt, down 0.98% and 0.82% week-on-week, respectively. Although prices remain relatively high, they have fallen significantly from the March highs, and the downward trend continues.

Analysis of Production Profit Data Fluctuations

According to data from Chempricehub, the theoretical production gross margin for pure acrylic emulsion is currently RMB 149.5/mt, with a gross margin rate of 1.84%. The theoretical production gross margin for styrene-acrylic emulsion is RMB 618.88/mt, with a gross margin rate of 8.55%. This week, the production gross margin for pure acrylic emulsion increased by RMB 196/mt week-on-week, while the margin for styrene-acrylic emulsion grew by RMB 129.12/mt. The main reason is that the market prices of raw materials like butyl acrylate, MMA, and styrene continued to weaken during the week, causing the cost of acrylic emulsions to decline compared to last week. Although the market price center for acrylic emulsions also fell during the week, the decline was smaller than the drop in cost. Consequently, production profits increased compared to the previous week.

Outlook: Short-Term Volatility with Downward Pressure, Long-Term Return to Rationality

In summary, caught between weakening cost support and lackluster demand, the acrylic emulsion market is expected to maintain a weak, volatile pattern in the short term. In the long run, once cost-side factors stabilize and demand-side adjustments occur, the acrylic emulsion market is projected to gradually return to rationality, with prices entering a stable trading range.