**Continuation of the "Strong Port, Weak Domestic" Pattern in Methanol Supported by Supply-Demand Dynamics (September 14, 2026)**

1. Key Focus Points

① Yulin Yankuang's methanol auction today started at 3,400 CNY/ton with a volume of 8,000 tons. The majority of the lots were sold in the range of 3,400–3,405 CNY/ton.

② Ordos Guotai Chemical Industry in Inner Mongolia is currently restarting its 400,000-ton/year coal-to-methanol unit. Product output is expected by the first half of this week; specific details are subject to further tracking. The plant has been shut down for maintenance since late July.

2. Today's Market Trends and Future Outlook

Table 1: Summary of Domestic Methanol and Related Product Prices (Unit: CNY/ton)

Data Source: Chempricehub Information

【Today's Commentary】Today's methanol spot price index stood at 3,536.49, a decrease of 124.24. Specifically, Taicang spot prices rose by 83 to 3,773, while Inner Mongolia North Line prices dropped by 270 to 3,425. According to Chempricehub monitoring of 20 major cities, five cities experienced declines ranging from 65 to 270 CNY/ton. The domestic methanol market is currently operating on a regional basis. Futures continued to oscillate at high levels. East and South China ports maintained strong upward trends due to low arrivals and continuous inventory depletion, keeping near-term basis strength intact. Conversely, inland markets declined as expected. Previously inflated prices faced negative feedback from downstream sectors, compounded by rising freight costs, leading to rational price corrections in upstream production areas. In the short term, based on current supply-demand dynamics, inland markets are expected to remain weaker than port markets. However, limited midstream and upstream inventories and pre-holiday downstream stockpiling provide some support, suggesting cautious expectations regarding the pace of price declines in inland areas.

3. Basis

In the afternoon session, Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange (ZCE) methanol futures oscillated. The MA2610 contract opened at 3,361 CNY/ton, reached a high of 3,540 CNY/ton, and hit a low of 3,352 CNY/ton, closing at 3,431 CNY/ton, up 7 CNY/ton from the previous day's settlement. As of the close, open interest for the MA2609 contract was 424,300 lots, a decrease of 29,500 lots from the previous trading day.

4. Production Dynamics

Table 2: Summary of Methanol and Downstream Production Dynamics

Data Source: Chempricehub Information

5. Price Forecast

6. Today, the domestic methanol market generally trended lower amid weak sentiment. Futures pulled back from highs, and combined with overly rapid previous gains, downstream resistance became evident. Expectations of some CTO plants selling surplus methanol externally and some MTO plants reducing loads or shutting down have emerged, significantly weakening overall trading sentiment. During the day, some upstream auctions failed to sell out, and downstream buyers in Northern Shandong aggressively pressed for price cuts. In the short term, the market is expected to experience an overall oscillating correction, though coastal markets may show relative resilience against declines.

7. In the medium to long term, the tightness in domestic methanol spot supply has eased due to increased external sales by methanol producers and downstream shutdowns in response to high prices. With previously high market prices gradually retreating, attention should be paid to the recovery status of methanol plant units and the extent of reduced downstream demand to determine if they can continue to provide support.

8. Market Sentiment

Table 3: Sentiment Expectations of Domestic Methanol Upstream and Downstream Practitioners

Data Source: Chempricehub Information

7. Related Products Overview

Glacial Acetic Acid: Factory prices have continued to rise since the weekend, and market prices followed suit today. Currently, some coastal factories focus primarily on shipping via waterway, while traders in certain regions are taking profits. Enterprise inventories continue to deplete, resulting in no significant sales pressure. Downstream users are replenishing stocks on an as-needed basis. Chempricehub forecasts that glacial acetic acid market prices will trend higher in the short term.

Formaldehyde: The formaldehyde market center shifted downward today. Falling methanol feedstock prices weakened cost support. Formaldehyde units operated steadily with limited changes in supply. Factories were forced to offer discounts to clear inventory under destocking pressure. Negotiation willingness within the market was poor, and transactions were flat. Chempricehub forecasts that both formaldehyde and methanol have room for further downside in the short term.

Dimethyl Ether (DME): The DME market remained stable today. Costs decreased as the center of gravity for methanol feedstock prices moved lower. However, constrained by previously strong cost bases, DME producers focused on stabilizing prices to repair profit margins. Transactions within the market were dominated by stabilization. Chempricehub forecasts that the DME market will consolidate sideways in the short term.

8. Data Calendar

Table 4: Domestic Methanol Data Schedule (Unit: 10,000 tons)

Data Source: Chempricehub Information
Notes:

1. ↓↑ indicates significant volatility, highlighting data dimensions with fluctuations exceeding 3%.
2. ↗↘ indicates narrow-range volatility, highlighting data with fluctuations within 0-3%.