During the period, upstream propylene prices declined, leading to a decrease in the production cost of acrylonitrile raw materials. However, acrylonitrile prices continued to fall, resulting in sustained production losses for the week. According to statistics, as of December 31, the average production cost of acrylonitrile in China was 8,162 yuan/ton, down 106% month-on-month. During the same period, the average production profit of acrylonitrile was -531 yuan/ton, a decrease of 58 yuan/ton month-on-month.
PriceSeek Analysis:
Propylene, Bull-Bear Score: -1
The article points out that the decline in upstream propylene prices has led to a reduction in the production cost of acrylonitrile raw materials, reflecting ample supply or weak demand in the propylene market, which exerts downward pressure on spot prices. The price drop indicates short-term oversupply or weakened consumption, with bearish factors dominating but not reaching extreme levels, hence the score is moderately bearish.
Acrylonitrile, Bull-Bear Score: -1.5
Acrylonitrile prices continue to decline, coupled with reduced production costs but an expansion of production losses to -531 yuan/ton (down 58 yuan/ton month-on-month), indicating severe demand insufficiency and worsening oversupply issues, which strongly bearish for spot prices. The sustained loss situation suggests that companies may reduce production, but the current price decline dominates market sentiment, with the bearish impact being significant but not a major event.