[Lead]: Low inventories, a high basis, and the approaching delivery of the September contract — despite crude oil pulling back in the latter half of the week, methanol held firm. With olefin margins steadily recovering, a flurry of MTO-related news emerged this week: some unit turnarounds were cancelled and restart rumors added fresh momentum to the methanol industry chain, underpinning its overall strength. US-Iran relations remain deadlocked, the Strait stays sealed, and vessels are struggling to enter or exit, with Middle East loadings having essentially ground to a halt recently.
As of this writing, Chempricehub's statistics show only two vessels (80,000 tonnes) have loaded from the Middle East this month. Meanwhile, typhoon-related disruptions to unloading and a few vessels unable to berth smoothly for other reasons have seriously set back the pace of inventory accumulation. If the Strait cannot be reopened, September methanol import supply is in doubt. Combined with the anticipated olefin restarts and the strong domestic market, port inventories could draw down to even lower levels in September. This explains why, despite lackluster spot buying interest, the September-delivery basis has stayed firm — at a premium of more than +50 yuan/tonne over the September contract — supporting some willingness to hold September positions and, in turn, producing a bull calendar spread.
Overseas, conditions are more mixed, with Southeast Asia the sole bright spot. The Strait blockade and major Southeast Asian unit turnarounds have indeed curtailed non-Iranian supply for September, yet ex-plant prices in some regions have been weak. The Rhine River is at historically low water levels, severely hampering barge offtake. Although Teba has idled some units, normal cargo volumes are still scheduled to arrive in China in September. And while the Strait remains sealed, Indian prices have not been pushed higher again, so Venezuelan cargoes are likewise still arriving in China as usual. In Southeast Asia, tight local supply — due to major supplier maintenance and unstable operating rates — has pushed regional pricing higher as of press time. Chempricehub therefore believes that the price standoff in parts of the external market is mainly a demand-side constraint: limited offtake capacity has left some regions in a "you come, I won't" stalemate. Going forward, close attention should be paid to how insufficient demand follow-through in India and Europe might squeeze cargo availability; at the same time, the Southeast Asian gap could support fresh transactions for Chinese re-export orders.
Taken together, the pivotal variable in the future supply-demand balance for methanol remains whether the Strait becomes passable. Over the past two weeks, the US-Iran standoff shows no sign of escalating into a wider conflict, so Iranian units are still being restarted. Local inventories are ample and still building, awaiting a change in the Strait situation and replenishment of vessel capacity. Barring macro-level shifts, methanol is expected to remain on a strong footing. Keep a close eye on olefin margins, the official confirmation of restart news, and overseas price movements.
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