Recently, the typhoon season has severely affected the discharge speed of foreign vessels. However, as the status of vessels in transit becomes increasingly clear, the total methanol import volume for August can now be essentially settled. It is estimated that around 708,200 tonnes of methanol from foreign vessels can be discharged in August, though berthing speed — which may be affected by weather conditions — still needs to be monitored. US-Iran relations are showing a phase of easing. One Iranian unit has recently restarted. Although shipping capacity remains tight, local inventories are still relatively ample, and there is still some floating storage in the Persian Gulf. If the Strait can be reopened, a joint recovery in shipping and higher operating rates at local units is possible.
This week, the Marjan unit restarted, with the latest local daily output data around 16,000 tonnes. Other units are not included in production estimates, as their operating status has been rumored but not confirmed. With ample combined inventories, production, and floating storage, the core driver of September imports remains transit through the Strait and shipping capacity. Port inventory is expected to decline first, then rise, and then stabilize during mid-to-late August. The month-end inventory level is estimated at slightly above 700,000 tonnes, with the full-month accumulation pace constrained by typhoon weather.
On the downstream side, traditional sectors have yet to show notable improvement, with most lacking sufficient internal drivers. For MTO, although margins have improved, the sector remains constrained by uncertainty over imported supply. The limited inquiries are mostly based on use in plants' traditional downstream units, rather than officially translating into expectations for olefin restarts. Excluding non-visible terminal arrivals and export plans, apparent demand in visible port storage areas remains low. Multiple olefin plant shutdowns and domestic supply replenishment continue to weigh on the visible consumption of imported cargoes. Therefore, even with a port inventory base of over 700,000 tonnes entering the traditionally peak season of September, supply does not appear tight. Of course, subsequent export developments still need close monitoring. Recently, however, export discussions have been fading, and earlier export deals are gradually being shipped out. Indian port inventories were already not low, and the earlier transactions may have been mostly sentiment-driven.
In summary, the methanol market continues to oscillate within a range, underpinned by supply issues below and capped by demand pressure above. Going forward, attention remains on vessel shipments, olefin operating rates, and export order settlements.
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