Anticipated Increase in Raw Salt Supply; Resistance from Chlor-Alkali Producers to High Procurement Prices (Sep 4–10, 2026)

1. Market Focus This Week

1. Production: The autumn harvest of sea salt has begun in parts of North China, suggesting a potential increase in future sea salt supply. In Shandong, some well-mined and rock salt enterprises have entered scheduled maintenance shutdowns. Well-mined and rock salt capacity in Shandong and Jiangsu is expected to come online sequentially in the late third quarter and fourth quarter. Import salt landed prices remain high, while domestic salt prices continue to trend downward. Procurement activity among downstream chlor-alkali enterprises remains generally moderate.

2. During this week (September 4–10, 2026), the average capacity utilization rate for Chinese caustic soda sample enterprises with capacities of 100,000 tons or more was 77.8%, a decrease of 0.3% from the previous period. No chlor-alkali units were taken offline for maintenance during the week; three units resumed operations after maintenance. By region, chlor-alkali operating rates increased in North and Southwest China but declined in Northwest, Central, and East China. Specifically, Shandong's chlor-alkali load was 79.5% this week, up 0.2% from the previous period. Looking ahead to next week, one chlor-alkali unit is scheduled for maintenance, while two are set to restart. The national chlor-alkali operating rate is estimated to recover to approximately 78.3%.

3. During this week (September 4–10, 2026), the comprehensive capacity utilization rate for soda ash was 71.69%, down from 75.47% last week, representing a decrease of 3.78 percentage points. Among specific processes, the ammonia-soda process utilization rate was 74.19%, an increase of 0.03 percentage points, while the co-production process utilization rate was 65.65%, an increase of 0.17 percentage points. The overall capacity utilization rate for 16 enterprises with annual capacities exceeding one million tons was 78.93%, a decrease of 4.35 percentage points.

2. Weekly Market Analysis

Domestic Raw Salt Price Trends (Weekly)

Unit: CNY/ton

Raw salt prices showed slight fluctuations during the week. Major downstream chlor-alkali buyers in Zibo reduced their procurement prices by CNY 3/ton. The autumn harvest of sea salt has commenced in parts of North China, leading to expectations of increased sea salt production. Sea salt producers are actively focusing on shipping inventory. Currently, well-mined and rock salt production in North China remains normal. Although thermal coal prices have risen, enterprises are prioritizing market share capture, with no plans for short-term load adjustments or price cuts. They are executing existing orders, and tender prices for rock salt remain relatively stable. In East China, sales are primarily ex-mill; transaction prices for some orders have declined, maintaining a steady-to-weak monthly price trend. Downstream chlor-alkali enterprises are procuring based on rigid demand. Rock salt prices in Central China remained stable; however, the market weakened following price declines in East China. In Northwest China, raw salt prices held at previous levels. Enterprises in Gansu entered planned maintenance shutdowns, while chlor-alkali plants in Ningxia have not yet reached full capacity. Raw salt demand in the region maintained previous levels, and prices for both well-mined/rock salt and lake salt remained stable.

China's raw salt imports in July 2026 totaled 889,000 tons, an increase of 31.47% month-on-month and a decrease of 12.08% year-on-year. The average import price was USD 34.98/ton. Geopolitical conflicts in the Middle East have intensified, keeping ocean freight rates persistently high. With domestic raw salt prices trending downward, imported salt lacks price competitiveness. Apart from long-term contract purchases, downstream chlor-alkali enterprises primarily procure domestic raw salt, using imports only for marginal supplementation. Currently, CIF China quotes for Indian salt shipments under 60,000 tons stand at USD 35–38/ton. Australian salt long-term contract cargo delivered to China is priced at USD 36–38/ton CIF. Mexican salt long-term contract cargo delivered to China is priced at USD 37–39/ton CIF, though fewer enterprises are currently sourcing Mexican salt. Actual prices for imported salt vessel cargoes ranging from 60,000 to 170,000 tons are negotiable.

3. Analysis of Market Influencing Factors

4. Shandong: Liquid caustic soda (32%) prices in the Shandong region exhibited mixed trends this week. Prices in the Liaocheng area were supported by potential maintenance plans, with local low-end prices gradually rising to CNY 650. In Southern Shandong, prices increased by CNY 10 amid moderate inventory drawdowns. In Southwestern Shandong, some high-end prices softened while low-end prices rose, slightly narrowing the spread between high and low ends locally. Prices remained largely stable in Northern Shandong, Central Shandong, and the Jiaodong Peninsula, with factory gate low-end prices ranging from CNY 585 to 650. Most enterprises maintained weak equilibrium between production and sales. Even where inventories increased, limited warehouse capacity helped support selling prices. In Hebei, prices in Hengshui remained stable, while localized discounts were offered in Cangzhou to clear inventory and boost volume, followed by a slight recovery in low-end prices.

5. This week, the domestic soda ash market trended steadily, with most prices holding firm and minor narrow increases observed in some instances. According to Chempricehub data monitoring, domestic soda ash production during the week was 682,800 tons, a decrease of 36,000 tons from the previous week, representing a drop of 5.01%. The comprehensive capacity utilization rate was 71.69%, down from 75.47% last week, a decrease of 3.78 percentage points. Ongoing maintenance shutdowns and abnormal operational issues at certain plants contributed to an overall declining supply trend. Total domestic soda ash inventory at manufacturers stood at 1,931,100 tons, an increase of 10,500 tons from Monday (up 0.55%) and an increase of 19,800 tons from last Thursday (up 1.04%). Shipment rates were slow, leading to inventory builds at some individual enterprises, while others maintained relative balance between production and sales.

6. Next Week Market Forecast

Downward pressure remains on domestic raw salt prices. As the autumn sea salt harvest progresses in North China, supply volumes are increasing, while inventories from the spring harvest have not yet been fully depleted. During the week, procurement prices for raw salt by chlor-alkali enterprises declined across the board. Given the weak downstream market conditions, enterprises are maintaining strict cost control. With salt producers becoming more active in shipping inventory, further downside space for salt prices remains likely.